Analysis of China's Coal Import and Export Trade in the Past 10 Months

The National Development and Reform Commission recently released data showing that from January to October this year, China’s coal net imports totaled 217 million tons, an increase of 39.5% year-on-year, and the average import price was US$103.6 per ton. The data also shows that the increase in domestic coal consumption has fallen, with coal consumption in the coal-fired power industry falling more noticeably.

Analysts said that after the continuous decline in international coal prices in the first half of the year, compared with domestic coal, the price advantage is obvious. In the peak season of demand, domestic traders have increased the purchase of imported coal, so the current year-on-year increase in imported coal is significant.

Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of weakening macroeconomics, thermal coal consumption has continued to slump, coal inventories of key power companies have continued to climb and remain high, and coal deposits at the ports of consumption and transit ports have also been at high levels, with a large amount of imported coal. The influx has also made the coal market in China, which was originally sluggish, worsen and coal prices have continued to decline. In the first eight months alone, China’s cumulative coal imports reached 185 million tons, an increase of 46.3% year-on-year, exceeding the 2011 total of 182.4 million tons of coal imports.

Experts believe that the large number of imported coal is good news for the domestic power generation industry and the steel industry. Due to the industrial off-season, private heating will have certain demand but it will not be a strong driving force. The domestic coal market should continue to be stable and there will not be much fluctuation before the end of this year. The large increase in imported coal may cause a certain impact on the domestic trade coal price, resulting in a reduction in the profits of domestic coal mining coal companies, but at the same time, it can also play a role in suppressing coal prices when coal prices are high.

However, judging from the trend of change, in the second half of the year, with the sharp drop in domestic coal prices, the domestic and international coal spreads have gradually narrowed, and the imported coal market continues to weaken. Since July, imports have continued to decline. In September, it fell below the 20 million tons integer mark to 18.63 million tons, down 18.6% year-on-year. In October, imports were still below 20 million tons. Therefore, some analysts predict that the annual coal import volume is expected to stabilize at a scale of 2.4-250 million tons.

Compared with the large increase in imports, China's coal exports have been showing a downward trend. Customs data showed that the export volume of hard coal and lignite in October 2012 was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 17% from the previous month. In October, China’s coal exports amounted to USD 68.527 million. In October this year, China’s total coal exports amounted to 7.89 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.02 million tons over the same period of last year, a decrease of 38.9% year-on-year; cumulative export amount was USD 136.955 million, 1-10 The cumulative monthly export value of 238.147 million US dollars fell 42.7% year-on-year.