When the policy was launched, the photovoltaic industry shook. In the first five months of 2018, the photovoltaic industry continued its rapid development since 2013. After the 5.31 New Deal, photovoltaic companies entered the winter.
The introduction of the New Deal has been more than half a year. It can be said that there are several happy families. After accelerating the industry reshuffle, all kinds of signals are releasing "the situation is not so bad." On December 28, Tongwei shares 25,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon project. In production, some large-scale PV module companies reached full production at the end of 2018.
For the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2019, Peng Yu, director of the Policy Research Department of the Recycling Energy Special Committee of the China Association of Circular Economy, said in an interview with the reporter of China Times: "The total installed capacity of photovoltaics this year is around 40GW, next year. Will maintain this situation, will not grow a lot, but the model will change a lot, including the ground-based power station, including the front runners, the ordinary ground will be the main bidding, distributed (photovoltaic) or will take the electricity to change the express train, solve the separation The problem of wall sales, the domestic distributed photovoltaic will therefore usher in a round of development; overseas market due to the continuous decline in component prices, continue to stimulate overseas demand, the overall look is still optimistic in 2019."
From running to winter
In 2018, it was a very promising year for PV companies. After being stimulated by the 6.30 in 2017 and vying for market share, Tongwei, Longji and Zhonghuan had to increase their capacity in 2018. However, the bad news came suddenly, and the PV companies entered the winter from the accelerated speed run.
With the most stringent PV New Deal in history in June 1st, the photovoltaic industry chain was collectively frustrated, and then 11 PV companies sent a letter to Xinhua News Agency, promulgating the "emergency appeal of entrepreneurs to the three ministries and commissions to introduce the 5.31 photovoltaic new deal." The joint letter, the joint letter pointed out that from the end of 2015, the photovoltaic industry has been subsidized by more than 100 billion.
Since then, a number of representatives of PV companies have called on the National Energy Administration to seek a turnaround. However, after the 5.31 PV New Deal, the bad news for the company came one after another. Shanghai Electric terminated the acquisition of 51% equity of Jiangsu Zhongneng, a subsidiary of GCL-Poly; Jiaze Xinneng’s acquisition of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics was stranded, and more Many small and medium-sized PV companies have stopped production and shut down.
Liu Hanyuan, chairman of the Board of Directors of Tongwei Group, said at the private enterprise symposium in November that “on May 31 this year, the relevant departments suddenly issued a notice to reduce the scale of photovoltaic power generation to less than one-third of the original level in the second half of the year, 6 It was implemented immediately on the 1st of the month, bringing systemic risks. New energy listed companies continued to fall and the market value lost more than 300 billion. Many companies were forced to suspend production, shutting down production assets by more than 200 billion, and the industry was hit hard."
Change and constant in shock wave
The impact of the PV New Deal on the PV industry chain is inevitable.
Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, once said, “The entire Chinese PV industry is still maintaining the rapid development trend since 2013, and the growth is still very fast, but it should be said that it will fall all the way in the next few months. superb."
According to Wang Bohua, taking polysilicon as an example, the output from January to September was less than 180,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of less than 5%. Last year's output was 242,000 tons, and the growth rate was close to 25%. In the first half of the year, it was close to last year's growth rate, but the dilution in three months became less than 5%.
However, with regard to the power of the 5.31 Photovoltaic New Deal, there have been differences in the industry from the beginning. One wave thinks that the New Deal will have a fatal blow, and another wave is still controllable especially in the eyes of large-scale PV companies, which is considered to be an industry turning point. Will promote the stable development of the photovoltaic industry.
Lu Jinbiao, vice president of GCL-Poly Energy, told the reporter of China Times that “a few happy couples, although the income is less, the overall industry is improving.â€
It is noteworthy that the reason for the expansion of capacity in early 2018 is that large-scale PV companies have seized market share, while the 5.31 PV New Deal has accelerated the process of “big fish eating small fishâ€.
Wang Xiuqiang, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, said in an interview with this reporter in early 2018 that "the expansion of production capacity, especially polysilicon and silicon wafers, will inevitably lead to new changes in price decline. Under this trend, the Matthew effect appears, low. Cost- and highly competitive companies will win, and the giants’ strategy is to eliminate high-cost competitors by increasing their market share."
In fact, after the 5.31 PV New Deal, there are still PV companies that have chosen to expand. On June 18, Ikang Technology announced that recently, the company's controlling shareholder, Aikang Group, or its wholly-owned and holding company, plans to invest in the production of heterogeneous high-efficiency solar photovoltaic cells and other ancillary products. The total investment of the project is about 10.6 billion yuan.
At that time, for the investment of 10 billion projects, the senior executives of Aikang Technology told the reporter of China Times, "The May 31st New Deal does not mean that the photovoltaic industry has lost development opportunities, but to promote cheap Internet access. This investment is also aimed at heterogeneous knots. The technology of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells, the conversion efficiency of this technology is relatively high, which is conducive to the rapid promotion of PV parity online in the future."
Peng Yu also confirmed that the sales of components of large-scale photovoltaic enterprises at the end of 2018 were very hot, and even the components could not be bought. Some large-scale manufacturing enterprises have already placed orders in the third quarter of 2019, which is in full production.
Trends in 2019
In fact, since November 2018, domestic PV companies have begun to usher in positive signals. Experts also said that the development in 2019 is relatively optimistic.
On November 15, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Implementing the Renewable Energy Electricity Quota System" (Draft for Comment), stating that renewable energy quotas are set for power consumption, and quota indicators are determined according to provincial administrative regions. The provincial people's government shall bear the responsibility for quota implementation, and the power-selling enterprises and power users shall jointly bear the quota obligation, and the power grid enterprises shall bear the requirements for the implementation of quotas in the operation area; and the quota assessment shall be officially started from January 1, 2019.
Peng Wei believes that although the impact on the entire power market, including thermal power, is relatively difficult, the corresponding system of renewable energy power quota system will be introduced in 2019 to improve the status of renewable energy.
"In 2019 and 2020, the Energy Bureau is still trying to find ways to continuously improve the power cut." Peng Yu also mentioned.
In fact, “the East is not bright in the Westâ€, although China’s PV companies experienced twists and turns in 2018, exports began to increase. According to CPIA statistics, more than 20 PV companies in China have deployed capacity overseas through joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, and investment. In addition, the overseas distribution of ancillary products has begun to increase, and the industrial supporting capacity of overseas bases has gradually increased.
Regarding the future situation of the market, Wang Bohua has publicly stated that from the perspective of the global market, the prospects are very optimistic. Currently, 146 countries around the world have made renewable energy development a policy goal. The main force of the plan is solar photovoltaic.
Peng Yu also said that in 2019, the domestic installed capacity of photovoltaics should be stable at more than 40 GW, and the foreign market is also expanding. After the implementation of the 5.31 policy, many small factories in manufacturing have already cleared up. For large-scale photovoltaic manufacturers. It is a direct benefit.
Cao Renxian, chairman of Sunshine Power, said that at present, the photovoltaic industry is on the eve of parity Internet access, and must continue to strengthen innovation and research and development to ensure that the future "bullet" can also be played out, while promoting healthy and sustainable development.
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