After the summary Recently, the State Development and Reform Commission rare bursts of three Wen expounded China's current economic situation, it is industrial production, the economy constitute the largest sector of the economy point of view, above-scale industrial added value in July edged up three consecutive months It has once again fallen back, causing widespread concern...
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission rarely issued three articles to explain the current economic situation in China. In terms of industrial production, the largest economic sector in the composition of the national economy, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded slightly after three consecutive months in July. The decline has caused widespread concern. The latest think tank report written by the Industrial Economic Situation Analysis Group of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "China Industrial Economic Operation Summer Report" focuses on the operation of China's industrial economy in the first half of the year, and the overall trend shows the characteristics of "slow and stable" . From the perspective of the three major demands for China's economic growth -- investment, consumption and exports, consumer demand is relatively stable, which depends on the prosperity of e-commerce and stock exchange markets. The main author of the report, Yuan Lei, director of the Industrial Operation Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the current decline in industrial growth rate, from the perspective of the three major needs, is that the three kinds of demand have declined together, and investment, consumption, and exports have fallen across the board. Consumer demand is relatively stable and has become an important force for stabilizing China's industrial economic growth. This is partly due to the development of Internet platforms and logistics industries such as Taobao and Jingdong. The products can be more effectively deployed nationwide, expanding the demand and supply of goods, making the chain of the industry close to consumers. Product capacity can be effectively utilized. In addition, the prosperity of stock trading has driven the flow of idle funds across the country; while the stock price has continued to rise for 12 months, the wealth effect of consumption has appeared, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in various regions has increased.
For the trend of industrial economic operation in the second half of the year, the report believes that China's industrial economy is currently in a period of transition from the "old normal" to the "new normal". Therefore, we cannot simply estimate the future growth rate based on past growth, but should consider it comprehensively. The country's policy objectives, the internal balance of the industrial economic system, changes in domestic and international development conditions, and other factors, to reasonably predict the growth rate of the industrial economy, can appropriately reduce the growth rate of the industrial economy, and increase the growth target of all industrial enterprises in 2015. It is set at 6%-7%, thus leaving enough policy space for “transfer mode and structure adjustmentâ€. Judging from the actual industrial economic growth forecast, since 2015 is the concentrated period of the impact of “three-phase superpositionâ€, the actual industrial economic growth rate may also operate at a level lower than the potential output growth rate. The increase is about 6.5%.
In addition, the report also analyzes some outstanding problems in industrial operation, including overcapacity and the continuous downward trend of industrial prices. The problems of corporate financing and high financing costs have not been effectively solved, and SMEs are relatively tight. In this regard, the report puts forward four suggestions; one is to make a fuss from the demand, broaden the investment field and release the demand potential; the second is to introduce aid policies to ease the difficulties of enterprises; the third is to deepen the system reform and guide the transformation and upgrading. The transfer of capital operation to the industrial operation of the technology depends more on the innovation ability of the enterprise. This innovative capability is a long-term process, not a short-term one. The fourth is to promote the development of integration and optimize the industrial ecology.
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