Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said on August 26 that the steel industry purchasing managers index was 45.4 in July, up 1.1 percentage points, still below the critical point of 50, indicating that steel demand is in a phased recovery. Not trending.
Cai Jin judged that steel demand and price will remain stable in the future. The bottom of the industry has passed and is in a state of recovery, but still below the critical point of 50. This shows that the steel industry is in a phased recovery, not a trend. Because the current leading role is that steel mills limit production, only the demand for accelerated growth can become a trend. To sum it up is “stable demand, limited production, balanced, and flat.â€
According to the data of the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the domestic steel market demand increased by 19.6% in July, which is already quite high. From the situation after September, the steel market demand is stable at more than 15%, or even higher, still Basic, it is conditional.
According to statistics from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the current national steel inventory reached 81 million tons, which includes finished steel inventory, market inventory, consumer inventory and logistics inventory, which is lower than the peak of about 90 million tons. The national steel inventory turnover period is 1.2 months, and the 25-day turnover period is the most reasonable.
Analysts pointed out that the domestic steel market price showed an adjustment trend, and several times failed. However, in general, in the case of a gradual improvement in macroeconomic policies, steel prices will not fall sharply in the short term. It is less likely to return to the 3,800 yuan line. It is expected that the demand will be released and the stock market will continue to rebound. The price is waiting for an opportunity to rebound.
Cai Jin said that domestic steel production growth has fallen back to 9.7% in July, and has reached single digits. It is similar to the weakness of the previous two years, that is, the growth of supply has fallen below double digits, and even can be said to be low. increase. In the long run, if steel production is lower than GDP growth, the market will have an opportunity.
Cai Jin believes that from the investment situation in July, corporate investment is becoming more active, indicating that the driving force for endogenous growth in the market is improving. In July, the growth rate of private investment in fixed assets investment was 31.3%, which was far higher than the average level of fixed asset investment. This investment is very basic. "Enterprise investment is to be effective. To be effective, it must be sustainable. Unlike government investment, after pulling it, the market is handed over to the company. If it is not handicapped, it will be very troublesome. Now the company has received the government's baton. This is a very positive factor.
Cai Jin judged that steel demand and price will remain stable in the future. The bottom of the industry has passed and is in a state of recovery, but still below the critical point of 50. This shows that the steel industry is in a phased recovery, not a trend. Because the current leading role is that steel mills limit production, only the demand for accelerated growth can become a trend. To sum it up is “stable demand, limited production, balanced, and flat.â€
According to the data of the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the domestic steel market demand increased by 19.6% in July, which is already quite high. From the situation after September, the steel market demand is stable at more than 15%, or even higher, still Basic, it is conditional.
According to statistics from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the current national steel inventory reached 81 million tons, which includes finished steel inventory, market inventory, consumer inventory and logistics inventory, which is lower than the peak of about 90 million tons. The national steel inventory turnover period is 1.2 months, and the 25-day turnover period is the most reasonable.
Analysts pointed out that the domestic steel market price showed an adjustment trend, and several times failed. However, in general, in the case of a gradual improvement in macroeconomic policies, steel prices will not fall sharply in the short term. It is less likely to return to the 3,800 yuan line. It is expected that the demand will be released and the stock market will continue to rebound. The price is waiting for an opportunity to rebound.
Cai Jin said that domestic steel production growth has fallen back to 9.7% in July, and has reached single digits. It is similar to the weakness of the previous two years, that is, the growth of supply has fallen below double digits, and even can be said to be low. increase. In the long run, if steel production is lower than GDP growth, the market will have an opportunity.
Cai Jin believes that from the investment situation in July, corporate investment is becoming more active, indicating that the driving force for endogenous growth in the market is improving. In July, the growth rate of private investment in fixed assets investment was 31.3%, which was far higher than the average level of fixed asset investment. This investment is very basic. "Enterprise investment is to be effective. To be effective, it must be sustainable. Unlike government investment, after pulling it, the market is handed over to the company. If it is not handicapped, it will be very troublesome. Now the company has received the government's baton. This is a very positive factor.
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