The "Russia Today" TV station website published an article entitled "What caused the record shrinking of the global auto market" on February 19th, saying that in the first three months of 2019, the World Trade Organization's automobile production and sales index may fall to 92.5. The relevant figures are expected to be the lowest in the past nine years. In 2018, the international auto market has stopped growing and its scale has dropped by 0.5%.
According to the article, in the first quarter of 2019, the global automobile production and sales index may drop to a new low in the past nine years. According to the forecast released by the WTO on the 19th, from January to March, the indicator has the risk of falling to 92.5, compared with 96.9 in the previous quarter.
According to the report, the data released on the organization's website shows that the expected value will be the lowest since January 2010.
According to reports, Russian analyst firm Autostat quoted data from Elsie Automotive Market Consulting Inc. as saying that in 2018, the international auto market shrank by 0.5% - the scale fell to 94.8 million cars. At the same time, this is the first time since 2009 that it has recorded a decline.
Analysts interviewed by the "Russia Today" TV station estimate that the shrinking international auto market is largely related to the global economic slowdown. In addition, Konstantin Zehmistenko, managing director of the company's financial operations at Unil Investment, said that demand for cars has reached the highest possible level and that its growth requires additional incentives.
He pointed out: "In many areas, demand is actually saturated. If you do not expand credit or increase the speed of vehicle renewal, it is difficult to expect the industry to recover quickly."
The article said that the international financial center expert Vladimir Rorankovsky said that the car market dynamics are known as the "wind vane" - indicating the future global economic process. In addition, not only is the sales volume reduced, but the more intense competition among big players is also affecting the world automotive industry.
The article believes that this refers in particular to the confrontation between the United States and the European Union. In 2018, Trump condemned the EU's trade barriers to US companies and did not rule out the possibility of tariffs on cars in European countries. According to the French newspaper Le Figaro, on the 17th of this month, the US Department of Commerce submitted relevant investigation reports to the White House. According to the document, the import of European cars and parts poses a threat to US national security.
The article quoted Roankovsky as saying: "If the United States imposes severe sanctions on the European automotive industry, the number of European jobs in the assembly and production sector in the United States will decrease. If 350,000 skilled workers in these factories are unemployed, The damage caused by the US economy will be about $10 billion."
The article said that experts have different views on the future prospects of the global automotive market. Roankovsky said that the industry situation is cyclical, so the decline may last for a long time.
He explained: "The automotive industry will continue to cut staff around the world, and by 2020, we will most likely witness time-tested global brands exiting the market. US manufacturers face higher risks. US companies have low profit levels. And as the dollar rises against the currencies of various countries, it continues to fall."
According to the article, Vadim Merkulov, a senior analyst at Free Finance, believes that the market will not fall too long, and that China’s car sales will start to increase again in 2020, which will largely Benefit from the increasing popularity of electric vehicles.
Melkulov said: "I believe that the market share will be redistributed in 2019, and the overall sales of cars will remain at 2018. But then (2020-2022), the car market will grow due to the Chinese middle class and Revitalized for the high demand for electric vehicles."
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