On March 16, Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in Shanghai that at present, about 50% of China's polysilicon needs to be imported, but this situation will continue to improve. It is expected that our polysilicon will be self-sufficient within 2-3 years. He made the above observation at a photovoltaic forum held by SOLARCON China in Shanghai on March 15-17. Wang Sicheng believes that from the actual demand of the industry and import data, China's polysilicon industry does not have overcapacity, and the current actual production capacity is only 70,000 tons. Polysilicon achieved self-sufficiency in 2-3 years In 2010, China's polysilicon production capacity was 85,000 tons, and the actual output was 45,000 tons. The import volume was 47,500 tons, and the import accounted for slightly more than 50% of the total demand. According to the statistics of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's polysilicon demand needs to be imported in 97% of 2006. The annual self-sufficiency rate will increase year by year. In 2009 and 2010, the self-sufficiency rate will be 50%, and polysilicon will maintain 50%. Wang Sicheng told the China Securities Journal that although the current self-sufficiency rate is not high, according to the current domestic polysilicon manufacturer's expansion plan and the comparison of photovoltaic cell production speed, it is expected that China's polysilicon will be fully self-sufficient within 2-3 years. With the official announcement of the industry's long-awaited "polysilicon industry access conditions" before the Spring Festival this year, the market's long-repressed polysilicon expansion plans have been distributed. In late February, GCL-Poly, the largest supplier of polysilicon and wafers in China, announced plans to invest HK$17.7 billion. This year, it will expand to 65,000 tons based on the existing capacity of 21,000 tons of polysilicon. This almost reaches the effective capacity of China's existing polysilicon. Jiangxi Saiwei, the second largest polysilicon manufacturer in China, is also planning a new expansion plan. At the same time, the top 10 domestic polysilicon production capacity manufacturers after nearly two years of technology accumulation and transformation, the yield will also gradually increase, increase market supply. The quality gap of the PV industry chain is obvious. Last year, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Institute conducted several surveys on the national polysilicon, and felt that the gap between the polysilicon materials and the international advanced level was obvious. According to the information obtained by the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, there are 20-30 polysilicon manufacturers in China, but there are few internationally competitive enterprises with large scale costs. From the perspective of energy consumption and recycling indicators, there are only 3 or 4 . Wang Sicheng said that, for example, most polysilicon production plants consume more than 180 kWh/kg, and silicon tetrachloride cannot be fully recycled. The unit cost of kilograms must exceed 50 US dollars. This does not have strong market competitiveness. . According to our reporter, the current cost of the seven major international polysilicon plants is maintained at 20-30 US dollars / kg, and the largest domestic medium energy cost in Jiangsu has reached 23 US dollars / kg. On the same day, China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance and International Semiconductor Equipment Materials Industry Association released the 2011 China Industrial Development Report. As of the end of 2010, the manufacturing capacity of crystalline silicon cells in China has reached 21GW, and further expanded to 30GW in 2011. China has accounted for half of the world's production capacity and output in terms of the lowest level of profitability in batteries and components relative to the industry chain. In addition, in the photovoltaic industry chain, photovoltaic equipment has become a hot industry in the capital market in the past two years. For example, the most dazzling technology in the market last year, it is the core equipment polysilicon ingot furnace used in the production process of silicon wafer. Turning in performance. Wang Sicheng said that the current localization rate of photovoltaic equipment has reached 70%, and the production capacity has gone up. However, some core high-end equipment still has a gap with foreign advanced level, and it still relies mainly on imports. For example, hydrogenation furnaces in the production of polycrystalline silicon, automatic welding machines for battery panels, high-purity quartz crucibles, etc., and some auxiliary products still need more breakthroughs.
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