Since the beginning of this year, the price of fertilizer has been rising all the way. Even in the fall season when the fertilizer is used, the market price is still consolidating at a high level. In addition, the current international financial market has experienced rapid turmoil, global financial instability has risen, and the domestic economic environment has been greatly affected. In the face of obviously large market risks, most companies are not willing to actively operate, winter storage is stagnant, and industry insiders are actively discussing how this winter storage should respond.
"China Agricultural Materials" Reporter: After the National Day, domestic urea prices fell. Do you think this is a short-term adjustment, or is the urea price already entering the adjustment period?
Chen Zhihao: After entering October, domestic urea has only wheat topdressing demand in the northern region. With the end of wheat topdressing demand, the domestic urea market will also enter the off-season. As the current export situation is not satisfactory, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will gradually appear, so the urea price will maintain a downward trend. After the National Day, many companies have slightly lowered the ex-factory price, which is also in line with market expectations. I think the current urea price has entered the adjustment period.
"China Agricultural Materials" reporter: 2011-2012 annual fertilizer and fertilizer storage tender has been completed, but the winter storage market has not yet started, what do you think will be the winter storage situation this year?
Chen Zhihao: This winter's winter storage is not a matter of time, but a price issue. At present, although the ex-factory price of urea has dropped slightly, it still maintains a high level of around 2,200 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the psychological expectation of dealers. Although the increase in raw material costs has driven the increase in urea prices, the acceptance of farmers is not High, therefore, the current price is still relatively high, if this price is available, it will not be sold until next spring. Once the urea price falls, the dealer will suffer a large loss, so the start of the winter storage market this year is mainly The price is decided.
"China Agricultural Materials" reporter: How do you judge the trend of urea price this year, what is the reasonable price of urea winter storage this year?
Chen Zhihao: As the current urea market price has entered the adjustment period, it is expected that in the short term, as the domestic market enters the off-season, urea prices are expected to fall below RMB 2,100/ton before the end of October. I think the reasonable price of urea winter storage this year should be around 1950 yuan / ton. If the urea price falls below 2,000 yuan / ton, there will be merchants to receive the goods, but even the price of 1950 yuan / ton can not guarantee the next spring sales will be certain It is possible to make money, because in the next two to three months of next year, there may be a price drop in the spring urea market. Although it is judged to be too early, it should be the worst.
"China Agricultural Materials" Reporter: As one of the largest agricultural capital circulation enterprises in China, how will the Zhejiang Agricultural Group's winter storage operate this year?
Chen Zhihao: If the price of urea falls to 2050 yuan / ton in the short term, we will take some of the goods, but only to maintain the cooperation with the manufacturers. If the urea price falls in the expected price and falls to the price of around 1950 yuan / ton, we will gradually replenish the product as planned to ensure the normal supply of the market.
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