Global energy demand increases by 30% after 30 years

According to the “Energy Outlook Report of 2040” issued by ExxonMobil Co., Ltd. recently, with population growth and global GDP doubling, global energy demand in 2040 will increase by about 30% from 2010, and energy demand in developing countries will increase. Nearly 60% increase. In addition, by 2040, 40% of the energy produced globally will be used for power generation.

The report predicts that from now until 2040 (when the global population will reach nearly 9 billion), with the global economic output doubling and the global prosperity and development, energy demand will increase significantly. Driven by the growth in demand in developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies, global energy demand in 2040 will increase by about 30% from 2010. If there is no expected improvement in energy efficiency, the increase in energy demand will be more than four times the expected growth rate of 30%.

The main content of the report’s outlook also includes the following aspects.

First, natural gas will gain market share. From 2010 to 2040, natural gas will continue to be the fastest growing main fuel, and demand will increase by about 60%. Non-economic cooperation and development countries in the Asia-Pacific region have seen particularly strong growth, and natural gas demand is expected to double in the next 30 years. By 2040, natural gas from shale and other unconventional rock formations will account for 30% of global natural gas production. Although oil is still the most widely used fuel, the overall energy demand landscape will change as the transition to less carbon-intensive energy sources (such as natural gas) continues and energy efficiency in transportation and other areas improves significantly. The share of coal will reach a peak, and then begin to decline for the first time in modern history. By 2040, the use of hybrid vehicles will help promote the average fuel economy of new vehicles to nearly 50 miles per gallon.

Second, renewable fuels will achieve strong growth. By 2040, more than 15% of the world's electricity will come from renewable sources (solar, wind, biofuels, geothermal, and hydro). The fastest growing of these energy sources will be wind energy. From 2010 to 2040, wind energy will increase by 18% annually.

Again, the increase in demand for electricity is considered to be the single factor that has the greatest impact on energy trends. ExxonMobil predicts that as economic and living standards improve and consumers choose to switch from other energy sources such as oil, coal or biofuels to electricity, by 2040, global electricity demand will increase by 80%. By 2040, 40% of the energy produced globally will be used for power generation.