Abstract According to Goldman Sachs estimates that the excess supply of iron ore in 2014 will reach 82 million tons, the highest in 2008, the situation will continue until 2017. Fubao Information believes that from the recent customs data, China imported a total of 73.14 million tons in July, compared to...
It is estimated that by 2014, the excess supply of iron ore will reach 82 million tons, the highest since 2008, and the situation will continue until 2017. According to recent customs data, China imported a total of 73.14 million tons in July, an increase of 17% from the previous month. At present, China's demand for iron ore is still relatively strong. In 2014, there will be so much excess of iron ore supply. It depends on the control of China's steel production capacity and the reduction of steel production. [hot spot reading]
â—In July, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 485 billion kWh, a new high in half a year.
Yesterday, the National Energy Administration released data showing that from January to July, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2,990.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 57.4 billion kWh, down 1.7% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 2,207.7 billion kWh, an increase of 5.4%; and the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 350.9 billion kWh, an increase of 9.9%; The electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 374.1 billion kWh, an increase of 5.1%. Among them, the total electricity consumption in July was 495 billion kWh, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, the highest increase since this year. However, industry insiders believe that the 8.8% increase is not necessarily a sign of economic recovery.
Interpretation: As we all know, industrial production is inseparable from electricity consumption. The reason why electricity consumption data has received much attention is because it has always been regarded as the wind vane of economic “cold and warmâ€. However, although the electricity consumption in the whole society reached a new high in half a year in July, the real economy has been slow compared to the rapid growth of residential electricity consumption and tertiary industry electricity consumption, so it is not necessarily a sign of economic recovery. Moreover, from the actual situation in July, due to the continuous high temperature of more than 40 degrees in many places in China, the electricity consumption of residents has been continuously rising, which has become one of the main reasons for the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. However, the construction industry and manufacturing industry in the secondary industry are generally not high due to the high temperature weather, which further indicates that the growth of electricity consumption is not due to the improvement of the real economy.
â— Iron ore is alleged to be affected by China's slowdown and oversupply or continued
From the outside world, China has always had a large and potential iron ore market demand, which has become the main development direction of miners. However, China’s economic growth has slowed and the iron ore market has also been affected. Bloomberg reported on August 13 that Rio Tinto and Vale continue to expand iron ore supply among the three major miners, and it is estimated that the supply surplus will continue for at least four years from next year. According to the report, according to Goldman Sachs, the surplus will reach 82 million tons by 2014, the highest since 2008, and the situation will continue until 2017. Bloomberg expects that the average price of iron ore will fall by 19% in 2014, reaching $115 per ton, a record low in 2009.
Interpretation: Since the fourth quarter of 2012, China's economic growth has slowed down markedly, and the profitability of the steel industry is not optimistic. Eliminating backward production capacity and strictly approving new production capacity have become an important means of saving the steel industry, although the effect in the first half of the year is not obvious. Steel Nissan continues to be at a high level of more than 2 million tons, but if this policy has been adhered to, coupled with the automatic elimination mechanism of the market in the context of industry losses, the steel industry's output growth has slowed down significantly. However, in contrast, the three major foreign mines, especially Rio Tinto and Vale, are still actively expanding the supply of iron ore. The future balance of supply and demand of iron ore will be broken, and the era of overcapacity of iron ore is coming. However, according to recent customs data, China imported a total of 73.14 million tons in July, an increase of 17% from the previous month. At present, China's demand for iron ore is still relatively strong. Whether or not iron ore supply will be surplus in 2014 depends on The control of China's steel production capacity and the reduction of steel production.
ã€related news】
â— Real estate regulation long-term mechanism is expected to be introduced before the end of the year
On the 14th, at the “2013 Boao Real Estate Forum†held in Hainan, Zhu Zhongyi, vice president of the China Real Estate Association, said that “the national urbanization development plan formulated by the relevant departments of the State Council and the long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market are still At the stage of argumentation, it is estimated that it will take about three months to be released." Zhu Zhongyi pointed out that the long-term mechanism for real estate regulation and control should include, tightening up and improving the real estate market regulation and control policies, and adopting more economic and legal means such as taxation and credit to regulate and control in the future; continue to strengthen the financing and housing projects in the financing and use supervision, Work on planning and construction, project quality, distribution and exit, and operation management; and improve relevant mechanisms in improving housing supply system, real estate taxation system, financial system, and promoting residential industrialization.
â— 7 steel enterprises report: Every family is profitable
Fangda Special Steel reported the release last night, the company achieved a net profit of 274 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 29.42%. Up to now, seven listed steel companies have issued interim reports, which have achieved profitability in the first half of the year. Moreover, considering that steel prices have strengthened from July, they are still strong. Analysts believe that the central government’s requirements for “steady growth†and “bottom line thinking†have increased the intensity of policy support for the economy. At the same time, railway construction As well as the construction of local urban rail transit, the construction intensity has been increased, and the demand for steel has increased greatly. With the arrival of the peak season in September and October, the steel market prospects are expected. Overall, the profitability of steel companies in the second half of the year is expected to continue to improve.
â— Baosteel raised the September ex-factory price in the second half of the year to consider limiting production
The ex-factory price of steel prices in the third quarter is often the same as the ex-factory price in the second quarter, but Baosteel has chosen to raise the ex-factory price of steel in September. *ST Angang also said yesterday that it is a high probability event to raise the ex-factory price of steel in September. For such an anti-seasonal increase in ex-factory prices, the reporter found through interviews that there are two major factors that stimulate steel companies to raise the ex-factory price of steel, but it does not mean that the steel industry "spring" is coming. The staff of Baosteel Securities Department said that it will consider limiting production in the second half of the year.
[panel summary]
On August 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.66 points to close at 15,337.35 points, a decrease of 0.74%; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 15.17 points to close at 3,669.27 points, a decrease of 0.41%; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 8.79 points. , closed at 1,685.37 points, a decrease of 0.52%. Light crude oil futures for September delivery after the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 2 cents to close at $106.85 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose $12.90 to close at $1,333.40 per ounce, or 1%. The US dollar index fell 0.08 to close at 81.69, a decrease of 0.09%. Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose $34 to close at $7,325, an increase of 0.47%.
[Market analysis]
On August 14, the period snail 01 opened 3838 higher, and fell back below the 3830 platform throughout the day. The highest in the day was 3848, the lowest was 3805, and it closed at 3819, down 3 against 0.08%. The funds were bearish, the trading volume decreased slightly from the previous day, and the positions increased by 3.8 thousand. Technically, the daily K-line high platform oscillated and went down. The KDJ indicator has signs of a correction, and the MACD indicator Hongzhu continues to expand slightly. The spot is stable and rising. In operation, more single-band operation, pay attention to the resistance of the 3830 platform, and wait and see. During the material period, the snails fluctuate at a high level, which affects the spot.
[Steel Market News]
â—Ore: On the 14th, the iron ore market continued to rise. In terms of the Platts Index, the general index rose by US$0.5/ton yesterday, and the current 62% Australian powder index is US$142.5/ton. Yesterday, Tangshan Yangang Pufang billet price of 3220 including tax, leaving the billet up 30; the performance of the finished product is still good, the downstream support is not reduced, the iron ore market continues to rise. In terms of imported mines, the bidding for the mines continued to be explored; the spot market for the spot market was still available, and some merchants were still reluctant to sell, and the market's bullish willingness was not reduced. At present, the mainstream spot resources of the port are in short supply, and the mines will continue to operate at a high level. In terms of domestic mines, Shandong Grand Mine once again raised the ex-factory price of iron powder by 35 yuan/ton last afternoon, once again consolidating the market's confidence, and the domestic mining market is expected to continue its upward trend. Other markets comply with 60% coarse powder 690-700; 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 805-815; 62.5% pellet 920-930; Qian'an 66% fine powder wet base does not include tax 820-840.
â—Steel billet: On the 14th, some of Tangshan's finished products rose by more than 100. The downstream purchase of blanks was positive. The blanks were optimistic about the market outlook. The sales psychology was obvious. The continued rise of the Tangshan market will drive other domestic markets to continue to rise. In the afternoon, the billet rose by 30. The carbon billet of Tangshan Guoyi and Xinglong had a tax of 3210 yuan/ton, a low alloy of 3330 yuan/ton, and a trader bare price of 3100-3120 yuan/ton. The factory price of Anfeng and Hongxing was stable, and the ex-factory price was 3,210 yuan/ton.
◠Coke: 14th Huaibei secondary metallurgical coke ex-factory price including 1280 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton, 邯郸 second-grade metallurgical coke to the factory tax price of 1220 yuan / ton, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax-included price 1300-1320 yuan / ton, Linyi secondary metallurgical coke factory price tax 1050-1100 yuan / ton, Wuhai second metallurgical coke factory tax price 970 yuan / ton, Yinchuan three-level metallurgical coke factory tax price 820 yuan / Tons, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price 1220-1230 yuan / ton, Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke factory price tax included 1200-1230 yuan / ton, Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1180-1230 yuan / ton, Tianjin Port secondary metallurgical coke warehouse price 1330-1380 yuan / ton, the coke market continues to be strong, driven by the continued strength of the downstream, the market sees a lot of atmosphere, the market price will continue to rise slightly.
â—Building materials: On August 14th, the price of the third-grade earthquake-resistant large snail in Beijing market was 3630 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Shanghai market Zhongtian second-class big screw 3590-3630 yuan/ton, It rose by RMB 30/ton from the previous day; Guangzhou Steel's Grade II large screw was 3,760 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day.
â— Sheet: On the 14th, the Shanghai market hot coil closing price was 3650-3680 yuan / ton, which was higher than the previous day. The Tianjin market hot coil closing price was 3560-3580 yuan / ton, up 10 from the previous day. Yuan/ton, Lecong market hot coil closing price of 3800-3820 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the previous day.
[Today's forecast]
â—Building materials: On the 14th, domestic building materials continued to rise steadily; as steel mills pushed up, local low-cost resources gradually moved closer to the high level, but the actual transaction was not satisfactory; the overall social inventory has increased from the previous period, but the pressure is still Controllable range. Raw materials continue to strengthen, coupled with high cost of arrival, steel prices still have some upside in the short-term, given the limited release of high-temperature demand, careful operation, it is expected that Beijing Hegang three-level earthquake-resistant large snail 3660 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day / ton; Shanghai Zhongtian two large snail 3600-3640 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from the previous day; Guangzhou Guanggang second snail 3780 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from the previous day.
â— Sheet: In the market, the spot market trend is still firm despite the long-term volatility in the past. Raw steel billets and iron ore continue to rise, while mill prices are also significantly higher, pushing traders to continue to raise prices. Specifically, the upward adjustments in North China and South China are obvious, but due to weak demand in East China, the market price has narrowed slightly. Other regions have basically maintained a strong operating pattern, but the overall market performance is average. Considering that the Tangshan billet continues to rise in the afternoon, and the current low inventory, high cost support, the business outlook is still cautiously good, so it is expected that the country's hot roll is stable. Shanghai market 5.5mm mainstream offer 3650-3680 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 5.5mm Tanggang mainstream offer 3570-3580 yuan / ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liugang mainstream offer 3810-3820 yuan / ton.
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