Abstract A recent debate on crystalline silicon and thin films was staged at the PV Leadership Summit on September 12. Crystal silicon and thin films have always been controversial. In the past few years, with the decline in the cost of crystalline silicon cells, the development of thin film batteries in the industry is dim. However, in the past two years, Europe and the United States "double anti...
The recent debate on crystalline silicon and thin films was staged at the PV Leaders Summit on September 12. Crystal silicon and thin films have always been controversial. In the past few years, with the decline in the cost of crystalline silicon cells, the development of thin film batteries in the industry is dim. However, the development of “double-reverse†in Europe and the United States in the past two years, the development of photovoltaic green buildings and photovoltaic application products have hit the discrimination of domestic crystalline silicon component manufacturers on the one hand, and created a great opportunity for the development of thin films on the other hand. The company that advocates thin film battery components represented by Hanergy has re-emerged.
At the summit, in the face of this topic, senior executives from the industry expressed their opinions. Dr. Shu Hua, CEO of GCL-Poly, and Dr. Song Dengyuan, Chief Technology Officer of Yingli Group, refuted the film-throwing remarks and emphasized the dominant position of crystalline silicon.
GCL-Poly is China's largest supplier of polysilicon raw materials and has its own perspective on the development of crystalline silicon and thin film batteries. Shu Hua believes that from the perspective of comprehensive cost performance, it can be applied to commercial photovoltaic power generation technology, and will still be crystalline silicon technology in the future.
He further elaborated that everyone is studying the development status of crystalline silicon cells and thin film batteries, including other photovoltaic power generation technologies, and everyone is very concerned. Undoubtedly speaking, any power generation mode, especially a power generation mode that uses solar energy, is constantly developing with the advancement of science and technology. The conversion efficiency of the crystalline silicon technology component is not more than 13% or even lower. In the early stage of development, the conversion efficiency has exceeded 23% and 24% today. After more than a decade of development, crystalline silicon technology has developed rapidly and conversion efficiency has increased. Thin film technology is growing with solar power technology.
On the whole, for a long time now and in the future, crystalline silicon power generation technology still dominates the mainstream of solar power generation, and currently more than 50% of solar power generation technology uses crystalline silicon technology. The quality of the most primitive materials manufacturing, polysilicon manufacturing, the past 7 to 9 polysilicon can be applied to solar energy, long-term commitment to technology research and development, most of the solar energy used in polysilicon technology. We are a polysilicon production supplier. I have 12 GW of silicon wafer supply, which uses crystal silicon crystal growth technology to quickly improve conversion efficiency. In addition to component technology and battery technology, it will improve the conversion efficiency of the entire system, and more importantly, it will be improved in polysilicon and crystal growth technology.
Shu Hua agrees that the film technology has also improved. With the conversion efficiency and service life to be solved, there is a market for its application, especially in the future, in terms of building integration, in this particular market, film technology has certain advantages. However, he also stressed that with the further development of crystalline silicon technology, the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon technology has exceeded 23% to 25%, which can replace crystalline silicon technology, and can be applied to commercial photovoltaic power generation technology in terms of overall cost performance. In the future, it will still be crystalline silicon technology.
Shu Hua said that from the polysilicon manufacturing process, GCL-Poly has reduced the cost of process technology in Siemens to less than $14. This month and next month, the cost of granular silicon for FB2 will be below $8. Such a rapid decline in silicon costs, coupled with improvements in crystal growth and wafer cutting technology, will provide efficiency contributions and cost contributions to downstream battery manufacturing processes, which will expand our global commercialization. The photovoltaic application market offers our cost advantages and technological advantages.
Therefore, our progress is quite fast, so I think that in the future, there will be other power generation technologies other than thin films, such as solar thermal power generation, but in the near future, and for a long time to come, Crystal silicon technology, crystal silicon efficiency growth and cost and price Internet access, as well as national government subsidies, into thousands of households, market applications, has become mainstream.
Song Dengyuan made more statements on the technical level and efficiency. He said that "crystalline silicon film, and other technologies such as concentrating cells and perovskite technology are parallel technical routes. From the perspective of development, the most important Which one is more close to what the current user can accept is the cost of electricity, and there is a good performance in the market, especially in the photovoltaic industry. There is a point that is different from other industries, including the Internet of Things, including automobiles. The photovoltaic industry is highly efficient, and the very important red line is the cost. In theory, this technology is good, but it cannot be scaled up."
Song Dengyuan said that from the current point of view, there are many technical routes, and there are many new technologies born from the laboratory every day, but they can really get industrialization and are accepted by the market. At present, it is very clear in the market. . In 2009, because crystalline silicon was very expensive, thin-film batteries accounted for about 16% of the market share, but in the next few years, crystalline silicon returned to its own value, and $400 returned to $50, $30, and $20. At the same time, its technical efficiency is improved, which is faster than the film, which leads to a reduction in the cost of electricity. This is reflected in the market. After 2009, the market share of films is getting smaller and smaller, and crystal silicon is getting more and more. According to statistics from 2013, thin-film batteries accounted for more than 9%, crystalline silicon accounted for nearly 91%, crystal silicon rose 92% this year, and thin-film batteries 8%. For any technological development, because of the multiple technological routes that can create technological diversification and create a competition, it can drive down costs. The key question is which technology can quickly reduce the cost, that is, every kW of PV modules becomes a system, and the cost per kWh is reduced, so that the market performance will be good.
On the other hand, Song Dengyuan also objectively evaluated the strengths of the film. He said that the application of the film in certain aspects may be more suitable for some. For example, thin-film batteries are flexible, regardless of the communication transformer, and are more widely used in this market.
"But what we are discussing now, the most important for the development of photovoltaic technology is material support, planning accounts for 1%, photovoltaics account for 20GW, new installations are 11GW, and in 2015 more than 35GW, the country is now doing the "13th Five-Year Plan", 2030, 2050 The annual plan, China's 2030 to 300GW, 2050 to 1000GW, accounting for about 11% of the total power generation planning.
The problem of material supply is a very important issue, because at present only crystalline silicon accounts for 27.1% of the earth's crust, which is inexhaustible and inexhaustible. Like sunlight, the earth's crust is silicon. Nearly a few million tons of polysilicon, if it becomes other materials, the material for thin-film batteries, regardless of bismuth, chromium, gallium, or indium, is a very rare element on the earth's crust, one in a million, especially indium. Aerospace materials are used more. The supportability of the material, crystal silicon for some time to come, if there is no major technological breakthrough, the target will occupy the mainstream position for a long time. Song Dengyuan said.
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