The hot issue in the current market is the European debt crisis that has emerged last year. Although the desires have been turned around several times, the corresponding solutions have not been introduced since October, which has gradually worsened the situation, during which Spain and Italy’s sovereign debt rating and many The bank rating was downgraded. To this end, the Bank of England launched a 75 billion pound sterling easing policy to stimulate its own economic growth. Germany and France reached an agreement to reach a comprehensive bailout plan to save the euro zone's bank debt and government bond crisis before the end of the month. However, in fact, a small amount of spot purchases and crude oil's consecutive five-day rise formed a rebound in the previous few days, but the lack of market confidence is difficult to form a sustained increase, the current two cities began an interactive weakening, resulting in deleveraging The long and short period of sharp changes in the long-term fluctuations have occurred.
First, the macro factors of the plastics market are dominant, and the property of goods is weakened.
At the beginning of September, due to the spread of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, domestic prices experienced a panic decline. The l1201 contract fell from 10,000 points from the highest point on September 1 to a low of 10,000 points. It briefly fell below the 9,000 level and the moving average system was in a short position. The weak market operation, investor confidence has been greatly tested, trading is cautious and weak.
From the macro perspective, under the backdrop of the global economic weakness, the political struggle of many countries has made it difficult to solve the European debt crisis and the risk has not faded. On October 17, German Finance Minister Schäuble said that the upcoming EU summit will not issue a final solution to the European debt crisis, and Schaeuble has also expressed his opposition to the proposal for a common bond in the euro area. As soon as the news was announced, market confidence was immediately suppressed, and the prospects for resolving the European debt crisis reappeared. The next day, Moody's downgraded Spain's long-term sovereign debt rating by two levels, from aa2 to a1, and the outlook was negative. It was believed that the still weak **capability and economic slowdown and pessimistic outlook were the main reasons for the downgrade. And, at the same time, France has also been downgraded and at the same time, those hot money just around the corner seems to have targeted the French government bonds. According to Bloomberg data, the yield on 10-year French government bonds and German government bonds climbed to a 16-year high, reaching 100 basis points. The spread of French government bonds and German government bonds over the five-year period also climbed to 91 basis points.
At the same time, China’s monetary policy may release the bullish factors in the future. The growth rate of domestic gdp declined for three consecutive quarters. The third quarter GDP growth was 9.1% from the same period of last year, which was lower than the expected 9.3%, and was lower than the 9.5% in the second quarter. Less than 9.7% in the first quarter. However, the Chinese economy still maintains a high growth rate of more than 9%, which confirms the view that the Chinese economy is accelerating its soft landing. At the same time, the domestic pmi index rose by 0.3 percentage point to 51.2 in September, which has risen for two consecutive months, reflecting that China's overall production status is still within the normal growth range.
Second, the cost of supporting plastics has little room for decline. 1. Winter oil peak is approaching Although the market is bad, many experts believe that the fourth quarter oil prices are hampered by the slow recovery of the international economy and the lower than expected macroeconomic data. It is unlikely that the sharp rise will occur again. However, the price of oil is strong near 70 U.S. dollars. It is certain that the winter oil peak is approaching. The crude oil has bottomed out and rises to near the resistance level of 90 U.S. dollars. Due to technical considerations, New York crude oil ** main force in November on the k line to see, kd double high crossing desire to callback, 180 k line chart price and macd top divergence, lack of upward power, is expected to be in the late 80-90 range Fluctuations, as plastics are relatively low relative to crude oil, a regression will occur in the future.
2. The plastic film production season will not change. The output of plastic film will be stable this year, with little change. In August 2011, the total output of domestic plastic products was 4.595 million tons, which was a decrease of 7.93% from the same period of last year. From January to August 2011, the cumulative total output of domestic plastic products was 34.524 million tons, a decrease of 4.41% from the same period of 2010. In August, the export volume of domestic plastic products reached 723,000 tons, a record high, and the unit price of plastic products also continued the good situation last month, with volume and price rising. In August, domestic output of agricultural films was 129,000 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the output of agricultural film remained stable. In August, domestic plastic film production was 712,000 tons, which was slightly higher than last month.
At present, the main agricultural film production areas are represented by Shandong. The overall operating rate is maintained within the range of 70%-90%. The daily output is about 70 tons, and the order accumulation is ideal. The Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu regions are slightly inferior to Shandong, and the operating rate is 60%-80%, the daily output is about 50 tons; in the northwest region, the production is dominated by the government bidding, the overall operation rate of the film is about 60%, and the purchase of the film is mostly from North China; the production in the northeast and southwest is stable, and the operating rate is 50 %-70%. However, although the agricultural film production season maintained, due to the continuous decline in the price of raw materials, the overall procurement will follow the market, the demand is difficult to release, it is difficult to form a support for the price. From November to the Spring Festival, it is a high maintenance period for agricultural film production, which is beneficial to long positions.
In terms of the pe functional film, from the perspective of inventory, the decrease in the chain ratio and the year-on-year increase kept the pressure on inventory to remain high. From the perspective of inventory structure, the stocks in the major markets all declined in September. By the end of last month, the pp and pe stocks both decreased. The pe inventory fell by more than pp, which was a decrease of 8.55% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 73.94%. The pp stocks decreased by 1.54% from the previous month. 16.85% increase. From the regional point of view, the stocks in the south and north of the country all declined in September, with a relatively large drop in northern inventories.
As of October 16, 2011, the total stocks in the major domestic markets of pp and pe decreased by 2.87% from the end of last month and increased by 54.45% from the same period of the previous year. From the perspective of inventory composition, differences in the pp and p inventory adjustments occurred: pe continued to decrease, and its margin narrowed. It decreased by 3.74% from the end of last month and increased by 66.57% from the same period of last year; while pp stocks increased, not much. The end of the month increased by 1.60%, an increase of 13.82% over the same period of last year.
3, the spot market price situation lldpe the petrochemical plant quoted confusion, this year in the peak season there is a sharp decline in the price of the embarrassing situation, the traders are basically lose money to earn money, in order to trade volume and loss of trading. At present, the mainstream price is around 9600, ** price is about 400 yuan relative to the spot transaction price, and the spot transaction price is about 400 yuan more than the petrochemical factory price.
4, the exchange warehouse receipts began to fall after the l1109 contract delivery, Dalian Commodity Exchange lldpe warehouse receipts began to fall. On Wednesday, there were 437 reductions, totaling 36025, and the inventory fell to 180,000 tons.
In short, from the perspective of upstream costs, whether it is crude oil, naphtha or ethylene, the decline is far less than that of plastics. At this time, the current price is relative to the spot price, the spot price is relative to the ex-factory price, and petrochemical plants and intermediate traders are At a loss, plastic products at the same time in terms of demand continued the good situation in the same period in history, so there is little room for cost support to lldpe in the late period.
Third, the market analysis of the latter part of the technical point of view, the current decline in the domestic market fell sharply in the peak season. The 1201 contract of plastics has fallen below the lower edge of the large box formed since the second half of 2009. Although the period price has been oversold compared to most other varieties, the current price will remain in view of the current risk of instability in the macro situation. Weak situation. As the support fell below 9000 points, the space below will continue to open and prices will fall back to around 8000. It is worth noting that the spreads in January and May have also experienced large fluctuations due to the shift of some short positions. We have been actively paying attention to the price difference between plastics in two months. According to historical data, we can find that if the spreads are more than 8% Rapid changes, then a wave of large-scale market will come to an end, the time will not be too long.
As the period of plastic price oversold was more due to the market's lack of confidence in the global economy and the outlook for the euro, the overall capital market was not deficient in liquidity, and the 50% or more falling market that occurred in 2008 was a low probability event. Once the market has produced European debt problems that have been predicted in the past, there will be a certain shift in long-short power, and after the bullish confidence is stabilized, the rebound rate may be fiercer. In operation, we first actively pay attention to the formation of long positions. Since inventory pressure eased, if a wave of rally emerged in October, it is recommended that investors set up a turbulent upward push model to control the rhythm for phased operations.
First, the macro factors of the plastics market are dominant, and the property of goods is weakened.
At the beginning of September, due to the spread of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, domestic prices experienced a panic decline. The l1201 contract fell from 10,000 points from the highest point on September 1 to a low of 10,000 points. It briefly fell below the 9,000 level and the moving average system was in a short position. The weak market operation, investor confidence has been greatly tested, trading is cautious and weak.
From the macro perspective, under the backdrop of the global economic weakness, the political struggle of many countries has made it difficult to solve the European debt crisis and the risk has not faded. On October 17, German Finance Minister Schäuble said that the upcoming EU summit will not issue a final solution to the European debt crisis, and Schaeuble has also expressed his opposition to the proposal for a common bond in the euro area. As soon as the news was announced, market confidence was immediately suppressed, and the prospects for resolving the European debt crisis reappeared. The next day, Moody's downgraded Spain's long-term sovereign debt rating by two levels, from aa2 to a1, and the outlook was negative. It was believed that the still weak **capability and economic slowdown and pessimistic outlook were the main reasons for the downgrade. And, at the same time, France has also been downgraded and at the same time, those hot money just around the corner seems to have targeted the French government bonds. According to Bloomberg data, the yield on 10-year French government bonds and German government bonds climbed to a 16-year high, reaching 100 basis points. The spread of French government bonds and German government bonds over the five-year period also climbed to 91 basis points.
At the same time, China’s monetary policy may release the bullish factors in the future. The growth rate of domestic gdp declined for three consecutive quarters. The third quarter GDP growth was 9.1% from the same period of last year, which was lower than the expected 9.3%, and was lower than the 9.5% in the second quarter. Less than 9.7% in the first quarter. However, the Chinese economy still maintains a high growth rate of more than 9%, which confirms the view that the Chinese economy is accelerating its soft landing. At the same time, the domestic pmi index rose by 0.3 percentage point to 51.2 in September, which has risen for two consecutive months, reflecting that China's overall production status is still within the normal growth range.
Second, the cost of supporting plastics has little room for decline. 1. Winter oil peak is approaching Although the market is bad, many experts believe that the fourth quarter oil prices are hampered by the slow recovery of the international economy and the lower than expected macroeconomic data. It is unlikely that the sharp rise will occur again. However, the price of oil is strong near 70 U.S. dollars. It is certain that the winter oil peak is approaching. The crude oil has bottomed out and rises to near the resistance level of 90 U.S. dollars. Due to technical considerations, New York crude oil ** main force in November on the k line to see, kd double high crossing desire to callback, 180 k line chart price and macd top divergence, lack of upward power, is expected to be in the late 80-90 range Fluctuations, as plastics are relatively low relative to crude oil, a regression will occur in the future.
2. The plastic film production season will not change. The output of plastic film will be stable this year, with little change. In August 2011, the total output of domestic plastic products was 4.595 million tons, which was a decrease of 7.93% from the same period of last year. From January to August 2011, the cumulative total output of domestic plastic products was 34.524 million tons, a decrease of 4.41% from the same period of 2010. In August, the export volume of domestic plastic products reached 723,000 tons, a record high, and the unit price of plastic products also continued the good situation last month, with volume and price rising. In August, domestic output of agricultural films was 129,000 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the output of agricultural film remained stable. In August, domestic plastic film production was 712,000 tons, which was slightly higher than last month.
At present, the main agricultural film production areas are represented by Shandong. The overall operating rate is maintained within the range of 70%-90%. The daily output is about 70 tons, and the order accumulation is ideal. The Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu regions are slightly inferior to Shandong, and the operating rate is 60%-80%, the daily output is about 50 tons; in the northwest region, the production is dominated by the government bidding, the overall operation rate of the film is about 60%, and the purchase of the film is mostly from North China; the production in the northeast and southwest is stable, and the operating rate is 50 %-70%. However, although the agricultural film production season maintained, due to the continuous decline in the price of raw materials, the overall procurement will follow the market, the demand is difficult to release, it is difficult to form a support for the price. From November to the Spring Festival, it is a high maintenance period for agricultural film production, which is beneficial to long positions.
In terms of the pe functional film, from the perspective of inventory, the decrease in the chain ratio and the year-on-year increase kept the pressure on inventory to remain high. From the perspective of inventory structure, the stocks in the major markets all declined in September. By the end of last month, the pp and pe stocks both decreased. The pe inventory fell by more than pp, which was a decrease of 8.55% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 73.94%. The pp stocks decreased by 1.54% from the previous month. 16.85% increase. From the regional point of view, the stocks in the south and north of the country all declined in September, with a relatively large drop in northern inventories.
As of October 16, 2011, the total stocks in the major domestic markets of pp and pe decreased by 2.87% from the end of last month and increased by 54.45% from the same period of the previous year. From the perspective of inventory composition, differences in the pp and p inventory adjustments occurred: pe continued to decrease, and its margin narrowed. It decreased by 3.74% from the end of last month and increased by 66.57% from the same period of last year; while pp stocks increased, not much. The end of the month increased by 1.60%, an increase of 13.82% over the same period of last year.
3, the spot market price situation lldpe the petrochemical plant quoted confusion, this year in the peak season there is a sharp decline in the price of the embarrassing situation, the traders are basically lose money to earn money, in order to trade volume and loss of trading. At present, the mainstream price is around 9600, ** price is about 400 yuan relative to the spot transaction price, and the spot transaction price is about 400 yuan more than the petrochemical factory price.
4, the exchange warehouse receipts began to fall after the l1109 contract delivery, Dalian Commodity Exchange lldpe warehouse receipts began to fall. On Wednesday, there were 437 reductions, totaling 36025, and the inventory fell to 180,000 tons.
In short, from the perspective of upstream costs, whether it is crude oil, naphtha or ethylene, the decline is far less than that of plastics. At this time, the current price is relative to the spot price, the spot price is relative to the ex-factory price, and petrochemical plants and intermediate traders are At a loss, plastic products at the same time in terms of demand continued the good situation in the same period in history, so there is little room for cost support to lldpe in the late period.
Third, the market analysis of the latter part of the technical point of view, the current decline in the domestic market fell sharply in the peak season. The 1201 contract of plastics has fallen below the lower edge of the large box formed since the second half of 2009. Although the period price has been oversold compared to most other varieties, the current price will remain in view of the current risk of instability in the macro situation. Weak situation. As the support fell below 9000 points, the space below will continue to open and prices will fall back to around 8000. It is worth noting that the spreads in January and May have also experienced large fluctuations due to the shift of some short positions. We have been actively paying attention to the price difference between plastics in two months. According to historical data, we can find that if the spreads are more than 8% Rapid changes, then a wave of large-scale market will come to an end, the time will not be too long.
As the period of plastic price oversold was more due to the market's lack of confidence in the global economy and the outlook for the euro, the overall capital market was not deficient in liquidity, and the 50% or more falling market that occurred in 2008 was a low probability event. Once the market has produced European debt problems that have been predicted in the past, there will be a certain shift in long-short power, and after the bullish confidence is stabilized, the rebound rate may be fiercer. In operation, we first actively pay attention to the formation of long positions. Since inventory pressure eased, if a wave of rally emerged in October, it is recommended that investors set up a turbulent upward push model to control the rhythm for phased operations.
Dongguan HengTaichang Doors Co, Ltd. , https://www.dghtcdoor.com