Rapid growth of energy demand, transfer of hinterland to the west

At present, China’s national economy has always maintained a relatively high rate of growth, and the rapid development of industries such as electricity, iron and steel, chemicals, and cement has boosted the rapid growth of energy demand, which is dominated by coal, while China’s coal resource supply conditions have caused coal supply to the northwest region. Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places are concentrated. China's energy reserves have the characteristics of lean oil, low gas, and rich coal. This determines that in the long-term future, China's coal-based energy structure will be difficult to change. In 2009, China produced 3.05 billion tons of coal, and also imported 125 million tons of coal. From the perspective of future consumer demand, by 2020, coal consumption will still account for about 55% of total primary energy consumption and about 4 billion yuan. Ton. Therefore, in order to ensure national energy security, we must increase the amount of coal supply, do a good job of overall planning of coal resources, and achieve a scientific layout as a whole. The central region should optimize the development structure and control the pace of development; the western region should pay attention to investigating new resources and expand the scale of development. Judging from the layout of coal mining in our country, in the old mining areas in the eastern and central parts of Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, and Shandong, after more than half a century of mining, reserves have been greatly reduced, the difficulty of mining has increased, and the cost has increased. Taking Shanxi Province as an example, the annual coal output is about 600 million. Due to the high-intensity and even predatory exploitation of the past 100 years, the development potential is insufficient. In particular, the Datong-Jiluo high-quality coal seam mining basically ended, and the Permo-Carboniferous coal seam became the future. Mining focus. Since the Permian coal seams are affected by the natural quality and the calorific value is low, they need to be processed after washing in order to meet the user's standards and the production cost is increased. In the future, the main supply of coal resources in China will be mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. These regions are rich in reserves, and new and recoverable coal resources are continuously discovered.

According to relevant departments' forecast, this year, the national coal demand should be about 3.3 billion tons, and the coal supply is still showing a general trend of loosening. According to plans from Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shaanxi, and Guizhou in 2010, the increase in coal production in five provinces (autonomous regions) will exceed 200 million tons. Since the integration of Shanxi's resources is not yet over, it will take 1-2 years for many small and medium-sized coal mines to resume production and release their capabilities, and coal supply will begin to shift westward. After the source of goods moved west, the structure of the transportation source changed. Take Datong-Qinhuangdao, an energy transportation artery, as an example. Last year, the Daqin Line completed 330 million tons of coal transportation, a decrease of 10.09 million tons year-on-year. Shanxi coal resources integration, mergers and acquisitions of coal mines, small and medium-sized coal mines and township coal mines stop production in large areas, resulting in tight coal resources. Qinhuangdao Port and the railway departments have joined hands to jointly explore new markets and increase new sources of supply to make up for the shortage of supply in Shanxi. The supply of Inner Mongolia to Daqin Line and Qinhuangdao Coal Port increased from the previous 20% to 35%, and Ningxia Coal increased from the previous zero resources to 9.5 million tons last year. The amount of Shanxi's resources transferred was reduced from the previous 73% to 60%. Sources of goods moved westwards to increase transport distance and increase coal costs. The Daqin Line was originally designed to transport coal from Shanxi Province. It runs from Datong Lake to the west and to Qinhuangdao Port to the east. It has a total length of 653 kilometers and a freight rate of 93 yuan/ton. From Qinzhou to Qinhuangdao Port, the rail transit is about 800 kilometers. The coal shipments of coal companies in Datong and Cangzhou have been the main force in the previous years, accounting for 70% of the total transportation volume of the Daqin Line and Qinhuangdao Port. However, after the integration of Shanxi's coal resources and the merger of large mines with small mines, the production of small mines has not been released. Shanxi's resources have been reduced, production has declined, and coal has been in short supply. After active struggle, coal mines in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia began to enter Hong Kong. The transportation distance of coal in Zhungeer and Yitai of Inner Mongolia increased by 200-300 km compared with that of Yanzhou Coal, while that of Wuhai and Ningxia Shizuikou Coal Mines in Inner Mongolia further lags, which doubles the distance from Datong to Qinhuangdao. Above, it is regarded as "a thousand miles" and the railway freight has also increased by about 100 yuan/ton. The extension of the hinterland of coal has increased the railway transportation distance, the corresponding increase in freight rates, and the high price of coal in the port has also led to a direct increase in the cost of coal purchased by downstream consumer companies such as power plants. In addition, the long transport distance caused a long transportation time, slow wagon turnover, and reduced transportation efficiency, limiting the capacity of the Daqin Line. Last year, Inner Mongolia produced 637 million tons of coal, 615 million tons of Shanxi, 80 million tons of Xinjiang, and 87 million tons of Shaanxi. Shanxi is affected by the integration of resources and mergers and reorganizations. Coal production has been declining. Inner Mongolia is rich in coal resources and mining is relatively convenient. The autonomous region seized the opportunity to increase coal production and meet the needs of users. In 2009, Inner Mongolia planned 470 million tons and actually produced 637 million tons of coal, an increase of 171.88 million tons year-on-year. Last year, Inner Mongolia produced more coal than Shanxi, the big coal producer.

Prior to this, in 2008, Inner Mongolia produced 457 million tons of coal and Shanxi produced 656 million tons of coal, a difference of nearly 200 million tons between the two provinces.

In the first quarter of this year, the national coal output was 7.5143 million tons, an increase of 174 million tons, an increase of 28.1%. In the first quarter, the national railway coal shipment volume was 495 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, Shanxi produced 160 million tons of raw coal, an increase of 50.45 million tons, an increase of 45%. In January-February, coal sales reached 86.92 million tons, an increase of 30%. In the first quarter of this year, Inner Mongolia produced 153 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 23.2 million tons, an increase of 17.9%. From the perspective of the amount of coal produced in the first quarter of this year, Shanxi once again restored its position as “dominant” in coal production. In fact, from the second half of last year, with the recovery of some coal mines in Shanxi Province, the production volume and the volume of outbound shipments have increased. Last year, Shanxi produced 615 million tons of coal and 36.67 million tons (monthly average) in the first quarter, which increased to 61.03 million tons (monthly average) in the fourth quarter. This year, it continues to show an increase. In addition, a few years later, some provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China will gradually withdraw from coal development, and the amount of coal used will increase year by year. Changes in the layout of coal development will inevitably affect the distribution pattern. The supply of the southeast coastal areas from Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang provinces (autonomous regions) further exacerbated the inherent contradictions of China’s “Northern Coal South, West Coal East”. . As production is highly concentrated in the western region, the bottleneck problem of coal transportation has become more prominent. It is particularly worth noting that the average haul distance of China's railways has been extended from 580 kilometers to more than 1200 kilometers. The average comprehensive freight rate is from 0.05 yuan/ton km. , rose to 0.16 yuan / ton-kilometer, the longest distance in more than 2300 kilometers, the freight up to 250 yuan / ton, resulting in northern China's port exported to the southeast coastal areas of coal, in terms of price compared with imported from neighboring coal prices There has been no obvious advantage. In addition to the reduction of import tariffs, large amounts of coal have been imported into the coastal areas. Last year, the import of coal reached 125 million tons, more than three times the previous year, and the net import volume exceeded 100 million tons. This year, coal imports will still maintain a certain size and quantity.

This year, Shanxi Province's coal production is 700 million tons, an increase of 13%, of which the railway transportation volume is expected to reach 400 million tons, an increase of 50 million tons. The increase in coal production this year is mainly from the "Three West" region. The national coal production increase is expected to reach 270 million tons, and Shanxi Province is expected to contribute 85 million tons. Daqin Line plans 400 million tons, an increase of 70 million tons from last year. Last year, high-quality coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, which greatly supplemented the coastal coal market, will maintain a certain amount of foreign transport this year. It has never been seen that Inner Mongolia is rich in natural resources, has good natural quality, has a large number of reserves, and has a broad prospect for development. After a number of years, the main force of Sinotrans will shift from Shanxi to Inner Mongolia. If the railway transport capacity is guaranteed, Inner Mongolia’s coal production will greatly exceed Shanxi. In Xinjiang, in recent years, Xinjiang has initiated the preparation of four major coal fields, 13 key mining areas and 11 general mining areas. In 2010, Xinjiang's coal shipments will increase from more than 10 million tons in 2009 to 30 million tons, and the planned amount of Xinjiang's coal in the east will be even larger. According to the plan of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Xinjiang's coal withdrawal volume will reach 50 million tons in 2012, 100 million tons in 2015, 500 million tons in 2020, and more than 800 million tons in 2025.

From the analysis of the national economy and social development trends and the supply and demand situation in the coal market in the first quarter of this year, the national coal output in 2010 continued to increase, and the potential for production capacity release was greater. The supply and demand situation in the coal market will continue to maintain a basic balance, but regional, species, Temporary supply of coal and tension will still occur from time to time. In particular, the coal supply situation will be particularly severe during the "summer peak summer" and "winter peak winter" periods.