Refined oil or the first drop in this year will be more than 100 yuan

Since the current pricing cycle, under the long-short game of factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, the tightening of crude oil inventories in the US Cushing area, the increase in the US dollar exchange rate, and the increase in the US oil rigs, the European and American crude oil futures fluctuated downward. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil rate of change has been continuously turned from negative to negative, resulting in the current round of price adjustment from the stranded expectations to decline.
According to the calculation of Jinlian, as of the seventh working day of February 6, the average price of reference crude oil is 66.53 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change -1.29%, the price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 95 yuan / ton. There are only three working days left in the price adjustment window. Later, crude oil will remain weak. Therefore, the current round of oil price will be reduced to a high probability event. This will be the first round of downward adjustment during the year, and it will be lowered again after more than 7 months. The price of diesel oil will be reduced by more than one hundred yuan. Zou Xuelian, an analyst of Jinlian Chuangxin Oil Products, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that after a rough calculation, an ordinary family car with a volume of about 60L will be filled with a box of gasoline and an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the middle of 2017. . And running 10,000 kilometers a month, Baili fuel consumption 30L logistics transport vehicles, the monthly expenses will be about 3180 yuan. Logistics transportation accounts for about 60% of diesel consumption, so the retail price of diesel is rising, and the cost of logistics and transportation industry has increased significantly. Zhongyu Information analyst Ma Jiancai told the "Securities Daily" reporter yesterday that due to the general decline in the global financial market, the intraday crude oil trend continued to decline yesterday. Due to the limited support of the international market in the near future, oil price rebound is expected to be weak. Affected by this, the downward adjustment of domestic oil prices is expected to continue to widen, and this round of downward adjustment is a foregone conclusion. In terms of the domestic market, due to the expected downgrade, the enthusiasm for stocking before the downstream festival is not high, and it is close to the year. With the logistics outage and large-scale shutdown of outdoor infrastructure, diesel demand will continue to be weak. It is expected that the national oil price will continue to stabilize on February 7. Downward trend. Zou Xuelian said that although the retail price of this round of refined oil products has been limited, the end of the six-month long-term rise in retail prices is still gratifying to end users. Moreover, this round of downgrade coincides with the Lunar New Year, private cars are out, travel radius is expanded, gasoline consumption is increased, and travel costs can be reduced by a small amount. At the same time, there are still discounts at gas stations, so there is little pressure on travel. During the holiday period, logistics and transportation basically stopped, and diesel prices fell slightly, which had little effect on the terminal.

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