In late July, there were some subtle changes in China's real estate regulation . "Striking the expectations of rising housing prices and strictly preventing housing prices from rebounding." It was placed on the top desk and more importantly. According to our reporter, the State Council’s inspection team has arrived in Nanjing and other places on the 24th to investigate the transaction, house prices and purchase restrictions of the localities. Prior to this, the State Council met to deploy the second half of the year. Some participants suggested that the current market has already entered the market ahead of fear of a sharp rise in housing prices in the short-term. The meeting listed “stable expectations†as the next step in the regulation of the property market . In the past few years, the “rigid demand†and “supply in short supply†arguments have been challenged. In the market that is expected to be promoted, the so-called rigidity is just an illusion. And when the “stable expectation†policy drives the speculative demand out of the market, the pre-emptive panic demand stops, who is naked after the ebb tide? “Rigid Demand†Fantasy For many years, Chinese real estate developers have relied on the existence of “rigid demand†to release the signal that the market is always in short supply. However, many economists told this reporter that since 2007, the property investment property has become prominent, and the simple law of supply and demand has failed. Under the expectation, the so-called "rigid demand" does not exist. Li Qingyun, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the State Council Counselor, believes that the "just-in-home" formulation misleads the public and creates expectations for rising house prices. Li Qingyun further pointed out that housing demand should be an effective demand. The so-called effective demand refers to the demand for purchasing power and ability to pay. Especially for middle-income earners, if house prices can decline to a certain extent, they will promote China's economic development. Vanke never used “rigid demand†and replaced it with the term “self-sufficient demandâ€, which contained two meanings. “Real estate enters the second half. For the residential market, it is necessary to cover houses that meet the needs of self-occupation and live in people; investment speculation needs are gradually eliminated.†Vanke, president of Vanke, believes. Qin Hong, director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the property assets of real estate in the past few years have been magnified, and the high housing prices that are out of real demand have inherent risks, such as Wenzhou and Erdos . If you exclude investment speculation, what is the actual demand for self-occupation each year? Our reporters found that in the past ten years, the sales volume of new residential buildings in mainland China was around 800 million square meters per year. It was driven by monetary policy and continued to rise from 2009 to 2011. The annual sales volume reached a peak of more than 1.1 billion square meters in 2011. . The chairman of Jindi Lingke said that after this, the annual sales volume of the new residential market will drop to 700-800 million square meters, including the affordable housing. In the future, as the effects of urbanization and demographic dividends diminish, the space for growth in per capita living space will continue to shrink. In fact, high inventory and oversupply are the reality of many cities. Taking Tianjin as an example, Zhong Wenhui, research director of the Tianjin Branch of the China Index Research Institute, said that Tianjin's residential inventory reached a record high. From April 2011 to June 2012, the supply-to-supply ratio was less than 1 for 15 consecutive months, and the market oversupply situation was highlighted. The multi-round regulation "failure" traces back to the "just-needed" warm-up argument, and the recent housing price increase is swift. On July 23, the China Real Estate Dynamic Policy Design Study Group revised the average price of commercial housing from a 4%-6% decline predicted at the beginning of the year to a 2% increase. Research team analyst Li Xianglan said that the revision of the data is based on the strong credit changes, and the real estate market is expected to change. Economist Xu Xiaonian pointed out that the fundamental reason why real estate regulation has repeatedly become "air conditioning" is that it ignores the investment property of commercial housing and the pricing mechanism of pure consumer goods. The investment products are determined by expectations, supply and demand, and the house has capital appreciation. The expectation, while the regulatory policy only hits the current demand, rather than increasing the supply of the future, people's expectations for the value of the future house are not changed because of the purchase restriction. On July 23, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued the "China Housing Development (Medium 2012) Report", which stated that the main reason for the failure of this round of regulation is the expected changes caused by fine-tuning of local policies and market panic. Changqing, the researcher of the chain market, told this reporter that “more than the release of self-occupation demand in the first quarter of this year, but from the second quarter, the changes expected to be brought to the market are very obvious.†Chang Qing believes that the price increase is expected to be very high. To a large extent, it has stimulated the entry of panic demand. Peng Yu, a senior researcher at the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, also said at the third economic forum held by Poly Tianyue that so far, the most stringent regulation in history has not allowed house prices to return to reasonable prices, but has raised the strong psychological expectation of rising house prices. Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitive Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned that the change in housing prices has increased the complexity and difficulty of regulation in the second half of 2012. It is expected that there will be a risk of retaliatory rebound in housing prices after half a year. Our reporter learned that the State Council convened relevant departments and institutions to discuss the real estate market situation last week. Some people suggested that although the current market is mainly based on the purchase of self-occupation demand, there has been panic buying, and it is recommended that the top management pay close attention to it. Expected to have an impact on market and house price movements. Stabilizing expectations to strengthen local accountability According to those involved in the above-mentioned meeting, what really worried the State Council and the top decision-makers in China was the “expected†changes in the real estate market. The source pointed out that the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued an urgent notice on the evening of the 19th, "Resolutely prevent housing price rebound", is to affect market expectations and promote a reasonable return of housing prices. Qin Hong believes that stable expectations are a major focus of future regulation. She suggested that the property market regulation should be leveraged and will curb investment speculation demand for a long time. According to sources, the State Council has sent eight inspection teams to carry out special inspections on the implementation of the State Council's real estate market regulation policies and measures in 16 provinces (cities). Including housing purchase restrictions, land supply, and implementation of differentiated credit policies are the focus of supervision. Xu Ruisheng, deputy governor of Guangdong Province, said at the symposium on the regulation of real estate market and housing security in Guangdong Province on the 19th that in the future, the inspection and assessment will be strengthened and the accountability system for interviews will be strictly implemented. Xu Ruisheng pointed out that the price of new housing has risen too fast, and the land price in the land transfer has exceeded the historical high price of similar land parcels, and the progress of the construction of affordable housing projects is slow, the management of rent and sale and the supervision of late use are weak. All relevant responsible persons will be held accountable in accordance with the regulations. A large-scale housing enterprise executive in Guangzhou told this reporter that this may be the importance of high-level awareness of expectations, gradually exploring and changing the means and methods of regulation, and constantly releasing strict information to the market to hedge against overheating in the market. Recently, various ministries and commissions have made more than 10 statements "strictly prevent housing price rebound." Xu Xiaonian believes that the above-mentioned "calling" sexual regulation is still a temporary solution. One of the most fundamental measures to change the expectations of rising housing prices is to increase supply, especially land supply, promote the reform of the land system, and consider the legalization of small property houses. It is necessary to abandon the 1.8 billion mu red line to break the scarcity of people's land. Expectations, and the resulting rise in housing prices are expected.
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