The problem of overcapacity seriously restricts the healthy development of the Chinese economy. Especially at the critical point of the current economic transformation, it is very important to deal with the problem of domestic overcapacity.
Recently, the state promulgated the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity", which sets new goals and requirements for the resolution of severe overcapacity in the steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and ship industries in the next five years. From the analysis of the content of the subdivision, according to the development characteristics of the industry, the Guiding Opinions identified eight major tasks for resolving the contradiction of serious excess capacity. It is worth mentioning that this opinion also puts forward a hard task. It is planned to eliminate 15 million tons of ironmaking, 15 million tons of steelmaking, 100 million tons of cement (clinker and grinding capacity) and flat glass 2000 before the end of 2015. Ten thousand weight boxes.
In general, a capacity utilization rate of more than 85% is a reasonable level. If the analysis is based on the standards of developed countries in Europe and America, the reasonable utilization rate is between 79% and 83%. Therefore, the domestic is more willing to use the 80% capacity utilization rate as a measure of whether the industry has excess standards. Steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and the shipbuilding industry have been named by the country as the five industries with the most severe overcapacity. According to incomplete statistics, the current steel capacity utilization rate is about 70%; the capacity utilization rate of cement and flat glass is about 74%; and the electrolytic aluminum and shipbuilding capacity utilization rate is also between 70% and 75. % fluctuation range. It can be seen that the capacity utilization rates of the above five major industries are all below the standard line.
From the perspective of the type of overcapacity, 75% to 80% of the capacity utilization rate is a mild overcapacity stage; 70% to 75% of the capacity utilization rate is a moderate overcapacity stage; and 70% or less of the capacity utilization rate belongs to Highly overcapacity stage. According to the above-mentioned incompletely measured data analysis, the five major industries named by the country are basically in the stage of moderate overcapacity.
In fact, overcapacity is a normal phenomenon in the market economy, and moderate overcapacity may be more favorable to economic development. After all, in developed countries such as Europe and the United States, because the corresponding market mechanism is very mature, and there is not too much administrative intervention in the market self-regulation, when the industry has overcapacity problems, it can basically use the market's own functions. Adjustment, and the survival of the fittest is the basic principle of its stable development.
However, in China, the result of overcapacity is quite the opposite. The reason is mainly due to excessive intervention in the past, which led to the complete loss of the market's self-regulation function. In addition, the link between local performance and GDP is to maximize local intervention. What's more interesting is that every time the country promulgates a series of industrial revitalization plans, the place is a swarm of ground projects. In the past few years, the trillions of boosting projects were taken as an example. At that time, the state promulgated a series of industrial revitalization plans to boost the economy. Among them, industries with overcapacity, mainly steel and cement, are also in the category of industrial revitalization. As a result, the localities fought for the project madly, and then successively launched new projects and large projects. In a short period of time, the relevant industries have seen a spurt of growth. What's more, some industries with severely insufficient production capacity have become an overcapacity industry in just one year. This development model is a wonder in the world.
The last local manager finally retired, but left a lot of problems for the next local manager. Due to the sluggish domestic and international demand, the capacity of the previous spurt-type growth has greatly strengthened the pressure on inventory. The forced intervention in the long-term locality ultimately leads to the inefficient operation of the enterprise. However, when some enterprises are overwhelmed and faced with elimination, the local government has maintained the development of the enterprise through subsidies and policy protection. However, in an inefficient corporate environment, it is impossible to solve the long-term accumulated ills and finally have a bad impact on the entire economy.
In response to this local-driven, self-regulating development model, it can be called "Chinese-style overcapacity." After years of blind expansion of capacity, China has paid a heavy price for this one-sided development model. The author Guo Shiliang believes that in the current economic environment, Chinese-style overcapacity needs to be healed, and it is necessary to find the right target and prescribe the right medicine.
Since 1992, the assessment mechanism linking local performance with GDP has gradually taken shape. In the past ten years, due to the rapid growth of the name of the economy, the state's assessment of local requirements has been further improved. In this environment, it directly motivates local governments to make a big fuss about GDP. It is worth mentioning that due to the influence of local long-term intervention factors, the market mechanism has basically failed, and the place has completely completed its tasks with its own will. This model also laid the groundwork for the current overcapacity problem.
In response to the above problems, the author believes that to resolve the Chinese-style overcapacity to do the following three points. First of all, diluting GDP data and gradually weakening the assessment standards of local political achievements and GDP are necessary prerequisites for solving Chinese-style overcapacity. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the market mechanism, highlight the power of the market, and ensure the healing effect with a long-term mechanism. Finally, highlight accountability and gradually improve the long-term accountability mechanism to restrict local blind decision-making behavior.
Recently, the state promulgated the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity", which sets new goals and requirements for the resolution of severe overcapacity in the steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and ship industries in the next five years. From the analysis of the content of the subdivision, according to the development characteristics of the industry, the Guiding Opinions identified eight major tasks for resolving the contradiction of serious excess capacity. It is worth mentioning that this opinion also puts forward a hard task. It is planned to eliminate 15 million tons of ironmaking, 15 million tons of steelmaking, 100 million tons of cement (clinker and grinding capacity) and flat glass 2000 before the end of 2015. Ten thousand weight boxes.
In general, a capacity utilization rate of more than 85% is a reasonable level. If the analysis is based on the standards of developed countries in Europe and America, the reasonable utilization rate is between 79% and 83%. Therefore, the domestic is more willing to use the 80% capacity utilization rate as a measure of whether the industry has excess standards. Steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and the shipbuilding industry have been named by the country as the five industries with the most severe overcapacity. According to incomplete statistics, the current steel capacity utilization rate is about 70%; the capacity utilization rate of cement and flat glass is about 74%; and the electrolytic aluminum and shipbuilding capacity utilization rate is also between 70% and 75. % fluctuation range. It can be seen that the capacity utilization rates of the above five major industries are all below the standard line.
From the perspective of the type of overcapacity, 75% to 80% of the capacity utilization rate is a mild overcapacity stage; 70% to 75% of the capacity utilization rate is a moderate overcapacity stage; and 70% or less of the capacity utilization rate belongs to Highly overcapacity stage. According to the above-mentioned incompletely measured data analysis, the five major industries named by the country are basically in the stage of moderate overcapacity.
In fact, overcapacity is a normal phenomenon in the market economy, and moderate overcapacity may be more favorable to economic development. After all, in developed countries such as Europe and the United States, because the corresponding market mechanism is very mature, and there is not too much administrative intervention in the market self-regulation, when the industry has overcapacity problems, it can basically use the market's own functions. Adjustment, and the survival of the fittest is the basic principle of its stable development.
However, in China, the result of overcapacity is quite the opposite. The reason is mainly due to excessive intervention in the past, which led to the complete loss of the market's self-regulation function. In addition, the link between local performance and GDP is to maximize local intervention. What's more interesting is that every time the country promulgates a series of industrial revitalization plans, the place is a swarm of ground projects. In the past few years, the trillions of boosting projects were taken as an example. At that time, the state promulgated a series of industrial revitalization plans to boost the economy. Among them, industries with overcapacity, mainly steel and cement, are also in the category of industrial revitalization. As a result, the localities fought for the project madly, and then successively launched new projects and large projects. In a short period of time, the relevant industries have seen a spurt of growth. What's more, some industries with severely insufficient production capacity have become an overcapacity industry in just one year. This development model is a wonder in the world.
The last local manager finally retired, but left a lot of problems for the next local manager. Due to the sluggish domestic and international demand, the capacity of the previous spurt-type growth has greatly strengthened the pressure on inventory. The forced intervention in the long-term locality ultimately leads to the inefficient operation of the enterprise. However, when some enterprises are overwhelmed and faced with elimination, the local government has maintained the development of the enterprise through subsidies and policy protection. However, in an inefficient corporate environment, it is impossible to solve the long-term accumulated ills and finally have a bad impact on the entire economy.
In response to this local-driven, self-regulating development model, it can be called "Chinese-style overcapacity." After years of blind expansion of capacity, China has paid a heavy price for this one-sided development model. The author Guo Shiliang believes that in the current economic environment, Chinese-style overcapacity needs to be healed, and it is necessary to find the right target and prescribe the right medicine.
Since 1992, the assessment mechanism linking local performance with GDP has gradually taken shape. In the past ten years, due to the rapid growth of the name of the economy, the state's assessment of local requirements has been further improved. In this environment, it directly motivates local governments to make a big fuss about GDP. It is worth mentioning that due to the influence of local long-term intervention factors, the market mechanism has basically failed, and the place has completely completed its tasks with its own will. This model also laid the groundwork for the current overcapacity problem.
In response to the above problems, the author believes that to resolve the Chinese-style overcapacity to do the following three points. First of all, diluting GDP data and gradually weakening the assessment standards of local political achievements and GDP are necessary prerequisites for solving Chinese-style overcapacity. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the market mechanism, highlight the power of the market, and ensure the healing effect with a long-term mechanism. Finally, highlight accountability and gradually improve the long-term accountability mechanism to restrict local blind decision-making behavior.
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