2016 compound fertilizer industry market analysis

Introduction: As the weather turns cold, the recent autumn of compound fertilizers in many places across the country has entered the tailing stage. According to statistics, the stocking rate of dealers in some regions is about 80%, and the replenishment space in the later period is extremely small. In addition, the fall rate of compound fertilizers in the integrated terminal market is relatively slow, and it is estimated that the delivery of supplier wheat fertilizer will continue until about mid-October.

This autumn's compound fertilizer market has the following problems:

1, demand delay

At the beginning of August, 2001, the situation of compound fertiliser companies was slightly improved. However, in July of last year, compound fertilizer producers in Jiangsu, Anhui, and other regions had started to produce autumn compound fertilizer and introduced the price of wheat fertilizer. In other words, this year's fall fertilizer market has been delayed by about 1 month from last year. For some companies to reduce their own inventory pressure, the operating rate is only about 6 percent, even in the peak period, the operating rate is only 7 percent.

2, the price fell

By the end of September 2016, most of the country’s 45% chlorine-based high-nitrogen, high-phosphorus, and high-phosphorus wheat fertilizers will have a production price of 1,700 yuan/ton to 1,850 yuan/ton, and some low-end products will have a price of 1,620 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton, compared with last year. During the same period, the mainstream price of 45% chlorine-based wheat fertilizer was 2,050 yuan/ton-2,100 yuan/ton, down by about 400 yuan.

The reasons for the price fall are mainly due to the following reasons: (1) the price of raw materials keeps declining, (2) the compound fertilizer industry is becoming more and more intense, and (3) the overcapacity

3, short delivery during the peak season

The peak season of compound fertilizer in autumn of 2016 began at the end of August. Near the end of September, the shipment of compound fertilizer in autumn has gradually turned to cool, and the peak season lasted only about three weeks. In recent years, the terminal market has purchased compound fertilizers when demand is approaching, dealers have difficulty obtaining the sweetness of stocking in advance, and compound fertilizer prices have been falling, making dealers' confidence in the market outlook worse than before. Therefore, the slow start of demand is also This has further caused the phenomenon of concentrated and short-lived peak season for compound fertilizers.

4, "de-capacity" difficult

Compound fertilizer prices have fallen again and again, making the company's profit margins smaller and smaller, and the reduction of profit will accelerate the "capacity removal" process of the fertilizer industry. In the past, the news that some fertilizer companies withdrew from the market made a lot of noise. On the road of “going capacity”, the backward enterprise winning was eliminated, and compound fertilizer enterprises were also inevitable.

As a whole, this year's development of the compound fertilizer industry is relatively difficult, and how to better implement the national capacity-reduction and zero-growth fertilizer use policy has become the focus of the company's transformation, and the company can only develop new fertilizers based on its own actual conditions. Only in the future can we take a good path forward.