International Markets: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal closed mixed on Monday, with three-month copper trading closed at US$2,990 per ton, down from last Friday's consolidated trading level of 12. Three-month aluminum conditions Similar to copper, it also benefited from weak US dollar and consumer buying. On Monday, it closed up 14 US dollars to 1.822 per metric ton. Copper futures exchange (COMEX) copper closed lower on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Monday, making trading more active. The March contract closed down about 0.70 cents to $1.3845 per pound and the trading range was 1.3650-1.3910. The spot December contract fell about 0.15 cents to 1.4335. Shanghai market: SHFE copper main contract Cu0502 opened slightly lower at 27900, and the price dropped slightly after the opening to a low of 27820 in the day. The morning price was slightly sorted, and the afternoon volatility was higher. The price was lower by 10 points higher than the higher price in the whole day. 28080, the transaction is more active, and positions have been enlarged. Aluminum AL0502 opened flat at 1572. The price fluctuates slightly throughout the day and closed at 15770. The volume was light. Fundamental analysis: On December 7, Xiao Chunquan, director of the Metallurgical Department of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, said on Tuesday that China will cancel the 8% aluminum export tax rebate next year. Xiao Chunquan said, "The government will soon publish the document." He did not confirm the exact date of cancellation of the export tax rebate. Prior to this, many aluminum producers have stepped up their efforts to export aluminum due to doubts about whether or not the country will cancel export tax rebates, and prices in the international market are obviously higher than those in the domestic market. The export surge from August 2004 is still continuing. It is expected that China will export 1.3 million tons of primary aluminum this year, an increase of 30% year-on-year, and a net export of 520,000 tons, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year. However, the current domestic supply pressure is still relatively large, which is also the main reason for limiting the price of aluminum. By the end of the year, the shortage of funding for aluminum plants in the spot market will increase domestic supply pressure. It is worth noting that the inventory of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by more than 4,000 tons last week to more than 99,000 tons. The extent to which the increase in exports can ease the pressure on domestic supply is a major concern for the market. Furthermore, due to the Chinese government's restriction on alumina imports, the Chinese buyers' retreat on the international import link will lead to the decline of international alumina prices. In fact, the price of alumina has started to decline in the past few weeks. The fall in alumina prices drove down the price of spot aluminum ingots. The aluminum price of A00 aluminum in the Shanghai market gradually shifted downwards from last week's yuan/ton to Friday's yuan/ton, down by 200 yuan. /Ton. However, at present, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum is still above the level of 15,500 yuan, which limits the space for aluminum prices to fall. In the earlier period, the soaring price of copper brought huge profits to copper-producing companies. The major copper-producing countries headed by Chile have all expanded their production capacity, and their copper production has increased significantly. Among them, Chile’s total copper output in the first 10 months of this year reached 4,405,158 tons, an increase of 9% year-on-year; In the first seven months of this year, Peru’s copper production increased by 21% year-on-year; Zambia’s refined copper production jumped 20% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year; China produced 1.67 million tons of copper in January-October, with a growth rate of 18.9%. According to the monthly data released by major copper producers in the world, the growth rate of their production is gradually accelerating. On the other hand, high prices have made copper companies overwhelmed, leading to a gradual decline in copper demand. According to data provided by ICSG, global copper demand increased by 6% from January to July this year, far below the increase in copper production capacity. The increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand will inevitably lead to a sharp drop in the price of copper. Global monetary policy gradually tightened, and the growth of industrial production began to slow down. However, at present, China's monetary policy is still relaxed, and the economic development momentum is good. The euro zone and Japan’s economy have shown signs of slowing down. The U.S. economic data are slightly lacking, but the overall trend is still good and the demand for base metals remains strong. On the whole, due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, exports of aluminum are expected to continue to be strong this year, which will be an impact on the international market. With the stocks sold at the end of the year, the spot pressure on the domestic market is relatively large, and aluminum prices are expected to be short-term. It is difficult to go strong. In the short-term, it will be cabinet vibration. The high point is 16060, and the low point is 15420. It is recommended to adopt a high throw and low suction operation method. For Shanghai Copper, the author believes that the possibility of a sharp drop in the short-term is still small, and short-selling remains cautious. However, with the gradual prosperity of supply, and the suppression of high-priced spot demand, I expect that the supply and demand situation in 2005 will be completely changed. In addition, investors are advised to pay more attention to the spread of copper and aluminum. At present, there is a difference of 12310 between Shanghai Copper 0502 and Shanghai Aluminum 0502, which is close to the historically higher spread. I think we can grasp the arbitrage opportunity. Xie Aihong
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