Chemical Industry Future Forecast

Focusing on 2011, the chemical industry is still booming. Among them, where are the opportunities for the development and excavation of business opportunities? How to grasp the direction in continuous exploration and competition? A person with a long life should take a look at the quantity, and the first person who has a clear understanding of the direction of market development must be the winner of the market. Here, we have to make a prediction for the future of chemical development.

1. Global soda ash supply will continue to tighten the world's second-largest soda ash maker - India's Tata Chemical Co. recently forecast that due to rising raw material and energy costs, global soda ash market supply will continue to be tight this year.

Chris Duvell, vice president and general manager of Tata Chemicals North America, recently said in an interview with the media that this year's soda ash produced by the company has basically been sold out and will run at full capacity. "Since most of the soda ash production in the world uses synthetic methods, petroleum coke, raw salt, and energy costs continue to rise, which will certainly drive prices up," Duval added. At present, the global annual output of soda ash is 45 million to 50 million tons, of which natural mineral raw material production is only 14 million to 15 million tons.

According to statistics from ICIS, as of April 6th, the spot price of heavy soda in China was US$250 (tonne price, the same below, FOB), and the price was US$205 (FOB) a year ago; the US heavy soda ash was produced in April. The contract price was 179 US dollars, compared with 171 US dollars in the same period last year.

2. Refining catalyst market will grow moderately If housing prices are the bottom of China's struggle, then oil prices will be another major problem after this struggle. Concerned about oil prices, it will inevitably involve is closely related to the refinery catalyst. According to Friedonia, sales of global refining catalysts are expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4% over the next few years, and sales revenue will reach US$5.5 billion by 2014, but the average annual sales growth will be less than the same period. 1%, to 4 million tons by 2014. The demand growth of FCC catalysts will be more moderate, mainly because the decline in gasoline demand in North America and Western Europe offsets the strong growth in road fuel demand from emerging markets. The demand growth of HPC will be relatively strong, because the standards for the content of fuel in emerging markets are increasingly strict.

3. Overcapacity of electrolytic aluminum On April 20, nine ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued an emergency notice a few days ago and asked all localities to immediately halt the planned 7.74 million tons of electrolytic aluminum projects with a total investment of 77 billion yuan. The main reason for the suspension of this project was the current overcapacity in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the end of 2010, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 23 million tons, while the actual output was 15.6 million tons, and the utilization rate of equipment was only 70%. If all the proposed projects are put into production, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity will exceed 30 million tons at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, and the contradiction of overcapacity will be further exacerbated. Continuous expansion makes electrolytic aluminum the weakest industry in the non-ferrous metals industry. Compared with excess capacity, electrolytic aluminum is facing another major challenge is the expected increase in electricity prices. The newly-convened executive meeting of the State Council stated that it is necessary to steadily advance the reform of electricity prices this year, and this will accelerate the shift of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to areas with abundant energy and resources in the west. With the gradual optimization of the industrial layout, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry's profitability is expected to be improved.