The continued decline in thermal power and new installed capacity and thermal power investment seems to have predicted that the power supply situation will not be easy this summer.
State Grid Corporation said at the 2012 peak summer safety production conference held on the 25th that during the peak summer season, the total electricity demand of the whole society will maintain steady growth, and the power supply and demand of North China and East China power grids are relatively tight.
"First Financial Daily" interviewed industry experts, the power generation companies are not optimistic about the prospects of thermal power, resulting in reluctance to generate more power, making China's "soft shortage" situation intensified.
This summer's power gap may exceed last year
Yin Changxin, director of the State Department of Safety Supervision and Quality of the State Grid Corporation, said that in the absence of continuous extreme heat and normal water supply, the company's operating area power gap will be around 25 million kilowatts, which is basically the same as last year. However, if there is a “large area in the country, continuous extreme high temperature weather and dry water†during the peak summer season, the power gap will exceed last year, reaching 37 million kilowatts.
In 2011, during the peak summer season, the national power grid's maximum power gap reached 30.55 million kilowatts. A total of 14 provincial-level power grids adopted orderly power consumption measures.
In addition, State Grid also said that during the period from June to September this year, the total electricity consumption of the 26 provinces powered by it will increase by 9.3% year-on-year, slightly higher than the average of 6% to 8% of the year, the largest electricity consumption. The load increased by 11.3% year-on-year.
In this regard, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, told this reporter that although the current economic situation is not good, the electricity consumption will go up in May and June, and the shortage of electricity is still likely to occur. .
For the real reason for the lack of electricity, experts believe that the power generation enthusiasm of the power plant is not high.
"The current gap is not the lack of coal and generator sets, but the lack of power generation." Zhao Yuwei, director of China Coal Power Resources Network Operations, said, "Now many power plant units are not fully loaded, and thermal power generation in the first four months of this year. The growth rate is much worse than in previous years. Therefore, if there is a power gap, then it cannot be said that the unit is not enough, nor can it say that the electricity consumption of the society is very large. It can only be said that the power plant is not willing to generate more electricity."
Lin Boqiang pointed out: "The installed capacity is enough, but the power plant does not have special efforts to generate electricity. The power plant's mind is not on the thermal power, because they do not make money, they are trying to do other sideline business."
The situation of "soft shortage" has intensified
In addition to the above-mentioned shortage of electricity in the national grid area, China Southern Power Grid Corporation also expects that there will be a load gap of around 3 million kilowatts in June, mainly in Guangdong, and will appear in the middle and late June. The balance of supply and demand in the other four provinces and autonomous regions, Hainan has a shortage of power during peak hours.
In this regard, Zhao Yuwei believes that the real power gap does not exist. “The real gap has appeared in 2004 and 2007. It is the power generation company that runs all the horsepower, but it is still not enough. This is the real gap. It is not the same concept as the current gap. It is now a soft shortage. Electricity, that is, power generation companies are constantly reducing generator sets and are not willing to generate more electricity."
According to data released by the China Electricity Council in late April, the newly built power generation capacity of the national infrastructure in the first quarter was 9.24 million kilowatts, a decrease of 4.56 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year. The thermal power generation added 6.49 million kilowatts, a decrease of 3.52 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year. The thermal power project completed an investment of 14.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%, continuing the trend of continuous decline in the previous year. In sharp contrast, the China Economic and Trade Industry Climate Index shows that the total fixed asset investment in the power industry increased by 14.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate was 7.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.
For thermal power companies to continuously reduce generator sets and investment, Lin Boqiang believes that although the on-grid price has been raised, the price increase is relatively small, which is not enough to make up for the loss of thermal power. In addition, there is little possibility of further price increases in the future. Therefore, the current power generation enterprises are still pessimistic about the prospects of thermal power.
In addition, Zhao Yuwei also said that on the one hand, the current demand for the entire electricity market is insufficient; on the other hand, the national power system reform has not made a substantial breakthrough, and there is no hard pressure on the power generation central enterprises, which will gradually expand the reduction of the generator set.
"The final solution is still to resolve the contradiction between coal and electricity, which is also the focus of the government's power system reform in the future. Thermal power generation accounts for 80% of the amount of electricity generated by the society. As long as a slight mistake is made, there is a lack of electricity. Therefore, the contradiction between coal and electricity For a long period of time in the future, it is still China's main energy contradiction, and thermal power is the key point of energy contradiction. Whether it can guarantee energy supply is basically based on thermal power," Lin Boqiang said.
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