On September 7, the workers worked in the garbage incineration workshop of the Qinhuangdao Waste-to-Energy Heating Project. Recently, a total of 450 million yuan of waste incineration power generation and heating projects in Qinhuangdao City, Hebei Province were put into trial operation. The project is designed to handle 1,000 tons of domestic waste and can supply heat to local residents and industrial enterprises. 


Since the beginning of the year, there have been different levels of power shortages in some areas of China, which has caused widespread concern at home and abroad. Although it has entered the autumn, the Southern Power Grid still has a 15% power gap. This year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". How is the actual situation of China's power supply and demand? What are the reasons for the lack of electricity in some areas? What are the solutions? These issues are worthy of further analysis. This year is a typical structural power shortage, which is significantly different from the national and large-scale power shortage from 2003 to 2005. The extent and impact of the impact is much smaller. In the first half of this year, China’s national economy grew by 9.6%. At the same time, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 12.2% from January to June, and the growth rate of 9 provinces exceeded 15%. At the same time that the economic growth rate has dropped slightly, the high-speed growth of electricity consumption has caused the most serious power shortage in China since 2004. Compared with previous years, this power shortage has two obvious characteristics. First, the time is ahead. As early as the beginning of the year, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, and the South was already tight. Even in April and May, which were considered to be used during the off-season, 8 and 11 provinces respectively adopted orderly electricity use measures. Second, the scope is expanded. In the past years, most of the power shortages were mainly in the economically developed areas along the southeast coast. However, in the list of power shortages, in the areas of traditional power shortages such as Zhejiang and Guangdong, the central and western provinces such as Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Guangxi are also among them. Even the traditional power output areas such as Anhui and Shanxi have also seen tight supply. This situation has aroused widespread concern. Some sayings such as "China encounters a rare power shortage", "the return of electricity shortages, this situation is even worse", and "China has encountered a serious energy crisis" have been widely spread. Is this really the case? Many experts interviewed said that this year is a typical structural power shortage, which is significantly different from the national and large-scale power shortage from 2003 to 2005, and the extent and impact of the impact is much smaller. In that round of severe power shortages, China’s electricity consumption growth rate exceeded 15% for 17 consecutive months, and 25 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities experienced different levels of power cuts. There are only about 10 provinces with significant power shortages this year, and less than 15 provinces with tight power supply and demand. According to the data, the annual power gap in that year was about 30 million kilowatts. According to estimates by the China Electricity Council, this year's power gap is flat. However, it should be noted that during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s power generation capacity has increased rapidly, with an average annual installed capacity of nearly 90 million kilowatts, equivalent to an increase in the installed capacity of the United Kingdom in one year. The current total installed capacity is nearly 1 billion kilowatts. There is a significant difference from the relative shortage of power installed in the year. Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Information Department of the China Electricity Council, said that time-limited power shortages in some areas have existed in recent years. The current main performance of power shortages is still structural power shortage, with local, seasonal and time-based characteristics. According to reports, local time-limited power shortages have existed in recent years. China's coal-fired power supply will be tight every summer and winter season, which is what the industry calls "the peak summer" and "peak winter". Moreover, while power shortages exist in some areas, some provinces in the northwest and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia suffer from “women’s electricityâ€. As of the end of April this year, the surplus installed capacity of Mengxi Power Grid, Northwest Power Grid and Northeast Power Grid were 6.4 million kilowatts, 14 million kilowatts and 13 million kilowatts respectively. However, in recent years, most of China's power installations are located in the western region, and many of them are new energy projects such as wind power and solar energy. The power grid construction is lagging behind. The surplus power in these areas cannot be transported to the power shortage areas in the east and central regions. Xue Jing said that this is also a typical structural power shortage. Therefore, for the current power shortage situation, we must attach great importance to it and take proactive measures to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand. At the same time, we must fully understand the nature and characteristics of the current power shortage, and should not exaggerate the status and impact of power shortage. The economic structure is unreasonable, and the energy demand of high-energy-consuming industries is growing too fast. This is an important reason for the current power shortage. The reasons for this lack of electricity are as follows: First, the relatively fast economic growth rate in some regions, especially The excessive growth of high-energy-consuming industries has led to an increase in electricity consumption. The power supply and demand situation is closely related to the state of economic development. Analysis of the economic data in the first half of the year We can find that although China's economic growth rate has slowed down relatively, many provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities still maintain a relatively fast growth rate. For example, Chongqing's growth rate in the first half of the year was 16.5%, ranking second in the country; Guizhou's year-on-year growth rate was 15.3%, the highest level in the same period in the past 20 years. Correspondingly, in the first half of the year, China's heavy industry electricity consumption increased by 12%, accounting for 61.9% of the total social electricity consumption. In the first five months of this year, the contribution rate of the six high-energy-consuming industries such as electricity, steel, and building materials to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society was as high as 42.7%. There is also a special phenomenon in power supply this year, that is, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western region is significantly higher than that in the eastern region. The main reason is also because some western regions have undertaken many industrial transfers from the eastern region, and industries, especially high-energy-consuming industries, have developed rapidly, resulting in tight power supply. Jia Fusheng, deputy director of the Economic Development Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the economic structure is unreasonable and the energy demand of high-energy-consuming industries is growing too fast, which is an important reason for the current power shortage. Affected by this reason, the national electricity consumption situation will still be severe in the second half of this year. The electricity consumption elasticity coefficient is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the relationship between electricity and economic growth. In the first half of this year, China's electricity consumption elasticity coefficient was 1.27. Experts said that China is currently in the transition from general industrialization to heavy chemical industry. During this period, high-energy-consuming industries are developing rapidly. Corresponding macroeconomic indicators, electricity consumption elasticity coefficient will generally be greater than 1, reflecting China's high consumption. Can have higher power demand in the industry. Second, abnormal climate change has intensified the contradiction between power supply and demand. On the one hand, when the temperature is high in summer, the air conditioning load is increasing, which increases the contradiction between supply and demand of peak electricity. In this regard, Liu Tienan, director of the National Energy Administration, has an image saying that when many people in the country turn on air conditioners at the same time, it is the peak of power supply. This year, due to climate anomalies, many areas of the country have continued to have large areas of high temperatures. It is estimated that during the peak summer peak season this year, the national maximum load of air conditioners reached 180 million kilowatts, an increase of 12.5% ​​over last year, accounting for one quarter of the largest electricity load in the whole society, and more than 40% in central cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. On the other hand, due to the continuous drought, the water supply from the hydropower station reservoirs has decreased, and the output of many hydropower stations has dropped drastically, which has aggravated the contradiction between power supply and demand. This is also an important reason for the lack of electricity in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and other places. According to relevant persons from China Southern Power Grid, hydropower accounts for 30% of its power supply. However, since August, the water in the Hongshui River and Wujiang Rivers has nearly 90% and 80% respectively, and the energy storage values ​​of the two major river basins have decreased by 85%. In addition, the contradiction between “market coal†and “planned electricity†makes the losses of power generation enterprises increase due to the rapid increase in coal prices, and the enthusiasm for increasing supply is not high. Experts said that the utilization hours of power generation equipment is the main indicator of the power supply capacity of the power generation. If the number exceeds 5000 hours, it may be accompanied by power shortage. However, since 2008, the number of hours of utilization of power generation equipment in the country has always been between 4,500 and 4,700, indicating that the installed capacity of power generation is relatively abundant. This requires rationalizing the price of resources on one hand and stimulating the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises. On the other hand, it is necessary to increase the construction of power grids and reduce the obstacles to the transmission of electricity. According to the current demand growth and installed capacity, it is expected that the power supply and demand situation in China will be more tense than this year in the next two years, and the power gap will be further expanded. This year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". People are very concerned about the power supply and demand situation in the next few years. Relevant experts said that according to the current demand growth and installed capacity, it is expected that the power supply and demand situation in China will be more tense than this year in the next two years, and the power gap will be further expanded. In this case, it is imperative to seek solutions to the problem of power shortage. First, we must properly control the total amount of energy consumption and resolutely curb some unreasonable energy needs. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outline proposes that the strategic adjustment of the economic structure should be the main direction of accelerating the transformation of the economic development mode. Zhou Dadi, deputy director of the National Energy Expert Advisory Committee, said that China's energy supply, especially electricity supply and demand, is mainly in demand. If demand is an unreasonable, leaping growth, supply is very difficult to meet, unless the power generation capacity is prepared very much, but there is no way to achieve economics. In the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", our economic growth must not only be more speed-oriented but also speed up the pace of structural adjustment. At present, China's high-energy-consuming industries are still maintaining strong growth momentum. In the first seven months of this year, the growth rate reached 12.8%. The output of steel, alumina, cement and ferroalloy products increased by 13%, 18.9%, 19.2% and 21.9% respectively. Du Xiangyu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that it is necessary to change the energy supply model that used the extensive energy supply to meet the excessively fast growth demand, and gradually shift to meet the reasonable demand with the scientific supply. Second, we must strengthen overall planning and increase the adjustment of industrial layout. In the long run, in order to alleviate the contradiction between energy supply and demand in the eastern region of China, some industries with higher energy consumption will be arranged in the western region under the conditions of water resources and ecological environment permitting. To alleviate the energy and power consumption in the eastern region, accelerate the western region. The development is of great significance. At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the construction of cross-region power grids and transport the abundant power of the large coal-fired power, hydropower and wind power bases in the western region to the eastern load center, which not only solves the problem of surplus power in the western region, but also solves the problem of power shortage in the eastern and central regions. Relying on coal transportation to transfer coal to power and transfer. In addition, we will continue to promote the reform of the power system, resolve the contradiction between “planned electricity†and “market coalâ€, and increase the enthusiasm of power companies. Thirdly, it is necessary to advocate a life-saving lifestyle in the whole society and oppose the bad atmosphere of comparison with luxury, so that China's per capita energy consumption and energy consumption per unit of building area are significantly lower than those of developed countries such as the United States.




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