Abstract In 2014, China's polysilicon production reached 132,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%; capacity utilization rate increased significantly, reaching 84.6%; industry concentration was further higher, the top 10 production accounted for 91%, the top 5 reached 77% . In the enterprise to step up complex...
In 2014, China's polysilicon production reached 132,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 57%; capacity utilization rate increased significantly, reaching 84.6%; industry concentration was further higher, the top 10 production accounted for 91%, the top five reached 77%. At a time when enterprises are stepping up production and expansion, and product prices are steadily decreasing, the production cost of polysilicon is not only related to the next market expansion of the company, but also directly determines its survival. A game about the cost of polysilicon production began. 
Electricity price advantage: How far can the bet in the west go?
Technological advances will bring about a significant drop in the power consumption of polysilicon production. The power system reform and UHV technology will narrow the difference in electricity prices across the country. It is hard to say how long the electricity price advantage in the northwest region can last.
From the current market development trend, the possibility that the price of polysilicon rebounds to more than US$25/kg is negligible, and polysilicon enterprises with production costs of US$25/kg have no competitive advantage. Zhang Wei, Investment Director of Junsheng Investment Management Co., Ltd., said in an interview that the cost of “$25/kg†will be further tightened due to the cost reduction brought by technological advancement and scale advantage, and some are still in profit and loss. Companies that balance points and even lose money have not been able to persist for a long time and will soon be completely squeezed out of the market.
Under the pressure of survival, considering that the electricity consumption cost of polysilicon production accounts for more than 30% of the total cost, and the electricity price in the northwestern part of China is relatively low, many enterprises will put the treasure in the location advantage of the region. At present, it seems that more than half of the polysilicon enterprises started in China are located in the northwestern region. Most of the planned new capacity is located in the northwestern region. Even some polysilicon enterprises in the central and eastern regions are planning to move their factories to the northwest.
"The reason why polysilicon enterprises are rushing to the northwest, first of all, the most important reason is that electricity prices are cheap. By coordinating the use of locally built self-supplied power plants, large industrial electricity is generally 0.2~0.4 yuan/kWh, which can effectively reduce Cost.†Wang Shijiang, deputy director of the CCID Institute of Electronic Information Industry, analyzed the advantages of building a new factory in the western region. “Secondly, the local can support coal and other mineral resources, which can effectively reduce the financing cost after being realized; The investment is low, the average investment of 1,000 tons of capacity can be reduced to 200 million yuan, which can reduce capital expenditure and reduce depreciation. Finally, the polysilicon industry has obvious late-coming advantages, which can make full use of advanced equipment and advanced production technology to reduce production energy consumption and material consumption. ."
At the same time, however, Wang Shijiang also pointed out the constraints of the northwestern region: First, the environmental capacity is small, the ecology is relatively fragile, coupled with the transfer of high-energy industries to the region in recent years, the new polysilicon project may be restricted; Second, water resources are scarce, and in addition to high power consumption, polysilicon production, water consumption is not low, which may limit the layout of the factory; third, if the existing factory moved west, the equipment availability is not high; Restrictions on talent.
It is said that these advantages and disadvantages are in front of us, companies can choose their own, but Zhang Wei still stressed to reporters, due to technological advances will bring a significant drop in the power consumption of polysilicon production, coupled with power system reform and UHV technology will be nationwide The difference in electricity prices has narrowed, so it is hard to say how long the electricity price advantage in the northwest region will last.
Technology upgrade: whether it is the most important
Fluidized bed technology is an important direction for the future development of the polysilicon industry, but it still needs to be rationally viewed in this technology, avoiding the mistake of domestic enterprises to improve the Siemens law from 2006 to 2007.
At the same time, another part of the company is reducing costs through technological advances. Compared with the current mainstream Siemens method, the fluidized bed method (FBR), which can effectively improve product quality and significantly reduce production costs, has become the direction of enterprise efforts. At present, the first 3,000-ton fluidized bed project of China's enterprise GCL-Poly independent intellectual property rights has been put into production, and it is expected to achieve 25,000 tons of production capacity by the end of this year.
In addition to their own production, foreign companies that are mastering this technology are also seeking to cooperate with China's polysilicon enterprises to establish joint ventures through technology transfer. The reporter learned that Shaanxi Tianhong has established a joint venture with the US REC company with a capacity of 20,000 tons and is expected to reach production in 2016; two Sichuan enterprises and one Gansu enterprise are also negotiating with the US MEMC company that owns the technology. .
"In the future, the fluidized bed method will have an absolute advantage. Some of the improved Siemens law projects with relatively high energy consumption and material consumption will gradually withdraw within a few years." Zhang told reporters that "the fluidized bed method will occupy half of the production of polysilicon."
Fluidized bed technology is an important direction for the future development of the polysilicon industry, but it still needs to be rationally viewed in this technology, avoiding the mistake of domestic enterprises to improve the Siemens law from 2006 to 2007. For the domestic enterprises that want to borrow the external force to launch the project, the staff of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association Secretariat put forward four points to pay attention to: First, the fluidized bed production control is more complicated, in addition to mastering the full set of production processes, it also needs Experienced technicians operate; Second, there are major safety hazards. When the scale of production is small, safety is relatively controllable. However, once the scale reaches 10,000 tons, the safety hazard will be magnified by geometric progression. Third, production cost It is not known whether it can be expected. According to the financial information disclosed by REC, the production cost is still 18 US dollars / kg (excluding 3 expenses such as sales), and after 2 years, the cost is reduced to 10 US dollars / kg, the span is not small; the fourth is the patent The problem is that the production technology of the fluidized bed method is mainly in the hands of the US MEMC, REC and WACKER in Germany, and it is necessary to pay a small fee for cooperation with it. The reporter also learned that although Shaanxi Tianhong and the US REC company jointly established factories in the form of 51% and 49% respectively, they have actually paid the other party a technology transfer fee of US$100 million.
"The domestic enterprises that intend to joint venture in the fluidized bed project must have multiple eyes on the partners. Don't let the other party fool!" Zhang Wei's statement is more direct.
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