On May 14, the National Energy Administration released data showing that in April this year, China's total electricity consumption reached 389.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.74%, an increase of 3.26% from March, a record of 16 consecutive since January 2011. The new low of the month. The hot summer has arrived. With the gradual increase of temperature, people are worried that this year will repeat the situation of full power cuts in 2011. The reporter learned that due to the fall in coal prices in 2012, the supply is sufficient, and the industrial power supply is sluggish, the power supply tension in the first half of this year has been significantly eased compared with last year. At present, the power supply and demand are generally balanced. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, said: "Although the large-scale power shortage like last year is difficult to appear this year, due to the decrease in the installed capacity of coal power, the growth rate of power installed capacity has slowed down, and some provinces in China have localized and seasonal. Sexual power shortages will exist.†“When Xia Yingfeng†goes back to March 2011, it was originally a traditional off-season of electricity consumption, but power shortages began to appear in most parts of China, and this trend continued until the end of the year. The data shows that in the past year, due to the decline in hydropower supply, tight supply of coal and electricity, structural imbalance of power grid, and rapid growth in economic and power demand, there were 24 provincial-level power grids in power shortages in China, with a maximum power gap of more than 30 million kilowatts. However, this situation has obviously changed in 2012, and it can be confirmed from the recent data on electricity consumption released by the state. According to the data of the National Energy Administration on May 14th, the whole society used electricity of 155.54 billion kWh from January to April this year, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.8 percentage points. In fact, the electricity consumption this year has been growing at a single digit of below 10%, and the growth rate has dropped significantly compared with last year. According to Xue Jing, director of the Statistics Department of the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as “CECâ€), the decline in electricity consumption in April this year is a normal phenomenon. "Mainly because the electricity consumption base was relatively high in the same period last year, and the macroeconomic situation this year, especially the heavy industry production situation is still unclear." Xue Jing said. "Macroeconomic data reveals a signal to the outside world - the continued slowdown in China's real economy growth, leading to continued low industrial power consumption this year." Zhang Yinbin, a macro analyst at Treasure Island, said in an interview that electricity consumption has been Reflecting the "barometer" of the national economy, China's GDP growth rate has been lowered to 7.5% this year. In the case of a decline in macroeconomic growth, industrial power consumption is also slowing down. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the import volume of hard coal and lignite in April this year was 25.05 million tons, a substantial increase of 90.1%. From January to April, China's cumulative coal imports reached 86.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%. “The coal import volume continues to remain at a high level, which also makes coal prices relatively low this year.†Zhang Zhibin said that the current 5500 kcal market power coal price is 780 yuan / ton, while the price in the same period last year was 805 yuan / ton ~ 815 yuan /Ton. Therefore, overall, coal prices have fallen this year and inventory restructuring is sufficient. It is expected that this year's large-scale “electricity shortage†phenomenon will be difficult to occur this summer. In this context, many provinces have emphasized that electricity supply is sufficient in the first half of this year to ensure that there is no power cut. For example, in Shanxi Province, which has experienced power shortages in 2010 and 2011, after three times in the past five years, the province’s on-grid tariffs were raised by the highest adjustment, and the thermal power enterprises in Shanxi Province, which have been suffering from huge losses, are approaching “reducing losses and flatteningâ€. In addition, this year, many high-power industrial industries in the province are under-employed, and coal prices are slightly lower. These factors are not necessary to worry about the peak summer power of Shanxi. Li Jianwei, executive vice president of Shanxi Electric Power Industry Association, said that after entering the third and fourth months of this year, the price of standard coal from Shanxi thermal power enterprises dropped by about 20 yuan (about 1 cent per profit). The coal situation is better than last year, so the summer problem is not very big. The data shows that in April and November 2011, after the National Development and Reform Commission raised the feed-in tariff twice, Shanxi Power Plant received a price increase of 6 minutes and 4 milliwatts per kilowatt hour, which initially eased the plight of the power plant to buy coal without money. Market participants believe that as long as normal production, Shanxi Electric Power can fully achieve self-sufficiency this summer. . In addition to the greatly reduced supply situation, the other reason is the continued sluggishness of some important power-consuming industries. According to the first quarter statistical bulletin of the Shanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the demand for electricity from coke and alumina decreased by 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, among the output of 10 major industrial products such as raw coal, coal washing, coke, alumina and cement. In the electrical structure of the whole society in Shanxi, the secondary industry, especially industrial electricity, accounts for more than 80% of all electricity consumption. The above-mentioned industrial industry has reduced production and production and narrowed the growth rate, making the power supply relatively plentiful. Local tension Although the current power supply is sufficient, Li Jianwei also admits that this fragile power supply and demand "balance" can easily be broken. After the adjustment of the on-grid price, Shanxi thermal power companies only got a little “breathing opportunityâ€. At present, the Jinbei Thermal Power Plant, which is closer to the thermal coal source, has begun to have a small profit, while the power plant in the south-central Shanxi still has no complete stop loss. If the upstream coal price and the electricity consumption of downstream electricity companies fluctuate slightly, the tensions such as downtime and pull restrictions will reappear. Li Jianwei’s above statement was confirmed in the “First Quarter National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report†issued by CEC in April this year. The report believes that although the growth rate of power demand has slowed down this year, the total demand is still growing steadily, and supply and demand are still generally tight. Especially during the peak summer season, the national power maximum power gap may be around 30 million kilowatts. In the case of a wide range of persistent hot weather and other uncertain factors, the maximum gap may be expanded to 40 million kilowatts. Then, in the current situation of sufficient coal, why are there still concerns about power shortages? "This year's situation will be much better than last year, but the problem of tight power supply cannot be ignored." Han Xiaoping also said in an interview with this reporter that the newly installed capacity and completed investment of thermal power continue to decrease significantly, which is more performance in the southern region. To be serious, power supply tension cannot be completely avoided. The data shows that the country's new power generation capacity in the first quarter of this year was 9.24 million kilowatts, a decrease of 4.56 million kilowatts over the same period of the previous year. The production capacity of thermal power decreased by 3.52 million kilowatts compared with the same period of the previous year, so China is fully capable of loading the peak electricity this year. The situation is not realistic. Han Xiaoping further pointed out that the phenomenon of power shortage in many areas is normal, and this cannot be called the phenomenon of “electricity shortageâ€. Entering the peak of summer electricity consumption, although the electricity consumption of residents in the whole society is only about 12%, the electricity load rate is very high, and the electricity consumption of residents in summer will also show strong growth, which will directly affect the electricity consumption during peak hours. . But if the gap is not large, the power shortage can be solved through grid deployment. However, one problem that cannot be ignored is that although the country’s electricity supply was tight last year, power generation companies have lost money. In mid-April this year, the Ministry of Finance announced the operation of the five major power generation groups for the first time. The data shows that the total profit of the five major power generation groups last year reached 18.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.43 billion yuan or 15.6% from the previous year. Among them, the profit of thermal power was 31.22 billion yuan, an increase of 19.07 billion yuan over the previous year. Wu Jingru, director of the Planning Department of the former Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power, said in an interview that because the electricity price is obviously lower than the cost, the power generation enthusiasm of many power companies will also be reduced, which also affects the domestic power supply demand to a certain extent. As an important measure of resource reform, many places such as Shaanxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Tianjin are currently holding a ladder price hearing. It is expected that in early June, the price of ladders is expected to be implemented nationwide. Although the implementation schemes vary from place to place, the price of electricity will rise further but it is undoubted. Wu Jingru once pointed out bluntly that although the five major power groups in China demanded a further increase in electricity prices on the grounds of huge losses, the implementation of the ladder price can only solve the problem of low residential electricity prices, and partially alleviate the power producers. The business situation does not really solve the power supply and demand problem.
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